Caleb Williams (CHI) Under 18.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The data strongly supports betting the Under on Caleb Williams' rushing yards at 18.5. Williams' recent performance has shown a consistent inability to achieve this mark. His overall hit rate for the last 20 games is only 10% (2/20), and he has not hit the mark in his last 10 attempts at all. Specifically, at home, he's had no success in his last 15 attempts. When facing the Green Bay Packers, his record is slightly better with a 50% hit rate, but it drops to 0% in home games against them. His overall current hit streak stands at zero, indicating a lack of recent success. The model edge of 0.123 also supports the Under bet. Therefore, a bet on Williams to rush for less than 18.5 yards seems statistically justifiable.
D'Andre Swift (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on D'Andre Swift to score a touchdown anytime in the game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers appears to be a risky proposition given his recent and overall performance. Swift's overall hit rate is low at 19 out of 61 games, and his recent performance is even worse with a current hit streak of zero. His home hit rate is slightly better at 12 out of 31 games, but his performance at home recently is also poor, with a current home hit streak of zero. However, Swift's performance against the Green Bay Packers is notably better, scoring in two out of four games overall, and one out of two games at home. His current hit streak against Green Bay is two, suggesting that he performs better against this particular opponent. Despite this, his overall and recent performance make this bet a risk. The model edge of 0.0766 indicates a small advantage, but this needs to be considered alongside the poor overall and recent performance records.
DJ Moore (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
DJ Moore's recent performance provides a solid rationale for a "yes" bet in the "player_anytime_td" market. His last five games' averages have shown a consistent trend of scoring touchdowns, demonstrating his significant contribution to the team's offensive strategy. Moore has also demonstrated a strong hit rate, consistently scoring in recent games. This streak can be an indicator of his reliability and potential to score during the Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers game. Although the model edge is just above 6%, it still indicates a slight advantage, which, in combination with Moore's recent performance and trends, makes a bet on him a reasonable option. It's important to remember, however, that while statistics provide guidance, they cannot guarantee game outcomes. Every game and every moment on the field is unique and unpredictable.
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