Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction & Picks (Caleb Williams Impact) : Expert Betting Guide

The statistical trend for Caleb Williams strongly indicates that an under 17.5 bet on his rushing yards is a smart choice. Williams has shown a consistent inability to reach this benchmark, with an overall hit rate of just 7 out of 31 attempts. This pattern is even more pronounced in recent games, with Williams failing to hit the target in his last 10 overall games and his last 5 home games. Furthermore, his performance against Green Bay is also below-par, with only 1 successful hit in 2 attempts. At home against the Packers, he has never hit the target. Currently, he is on a streak of 0 successful attempts overall and at home, indicating a downward trend. Although the model edge is relatively low at 0.095709550872064, the consistent underperformance of Williams makes an under 17.5 bet a solid choice.

D'Andre Swift (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+145)

Although D'Andre Swift's overall touchdown hit rate is low, his performance against the Green Bay Packers is notably better. When playing against Green Bay, Swift has scored in 2 of the last 4 games. Even more promising, he is presently on a 2-game scoring streak against the Packers. While his recent overall and home performance doesn't inspire much confidence, with hit rates of 0/10 and 1/10 respectively, it's crucial to consider Swift's specific matchup history. His hit rate at home against the Packers is 50%, indicating that he performs well in this particular scenario. The model edge of 0.0941455554970496 also suggests a potential value in betting on Swift to score. Therefore, despite some discouraging stats, Swift's success against the Packers makes this a bet worth considering.

DJ Moore (CHI) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+130)

DJ Moore's recent performance suggests that betting on him to score a touchdown at any time in the Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers game could be a profitable proposition. Over his last five games, Moore has consistently demonstrated his ability to find the end zone. His current streak and hit rates further reinforce this potential. However, it's also important to consider the model edge of 0.0675262121075197. This figure reveals that our prediction model gives a slight edge for this outcome, indicating that there's a small but meaningful probability that the market is undervaluing Moore's chances of scoring. Therefore, while there's inherent risk in any bet, the data suggests that a wager on DJ Moore to score a touchdown at any time in this game is a statistically supported decision.

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers : NA -1.5 Point Spread (-102)

The bet on the Chicago Bears -1.5 in the 'spreads' market is supported by the Bears' recent superior performance, particularly at home. Over the last five games, the Bears have an impressive 4-1 overall record and a perfect 5-0 record at home. They outscore their opponents by an average of 7 points per game overall and an even more impressive 12.8 points at home. Their defensive ability is demonstrated by their Expected Points Added (EPA) against, which is negative indicating they prevent opponents from scoring. Similarly, their offensive efficiency is reflected in their positive EPA for. In terms of turnovers, the Bears are also ahead, with a turnover difference of 1.2 overall and 2.2 at home, suggesting they are both forcing more turnovers and giving up fewer than their opponents. Despite their less favorable record against this opponent, their recent performance supports the -1.5 spread bet.

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers : NA -1.5 Point Spread (-105)

Betting on the Chicago Bears -1.5 in the spreads market is backed by several key statistical factors. Firstly, their overall home performance over the last five games is strong, with an average score for of 25.2 points, and an average score against of 18.2 points, leading to a positive point differential of 7. They have also demonstrated a superior ability to force turnovers at home, with a turnover differential of 1.2. This gives them more opportunities to score and reduces the chances for their opponents. The Bears also have a strong home record, with a 5-0 win-loss record in their last five home games, indicating they perform well on their home field. Despite a less favorable record against their opponent (1-4), the Bears' recent form at home and their ability to limit their opponents' scoring while maximizing their own scoring opportunities, provides a strong rationale for betting on them in the spreads market.