Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees : Over 5 Total Runs (-714)

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The 'Over 5' bet for total runs is a strong choice based on the offensive and defensive performances of both teams. The Boston Red Sox have been consistently scoring above the line, with an average of 5.2 runs in their last 5 games, both overall and at home. The New York Yankees have been contributing an additional average of 3.2 runs in their recent games. Both teams have also demonstrated solid batting averages with 6.8 and 7.8 hits respectively. On the defensive side, both teams are allowing less than the line with averages of 2.8 and 3.4 runs respectively. However, considering the offensive capabilities of both teams, the combined total runs are likely to cross the set line, making 'Over 5' a good choice for this bet.

Aaron Judge (NYY) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-1429)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on Aaron Judge for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is based on his recent performance data. Over his last five games, Judge's overall and away stolen bases (SB) average is just 0.2. This indicates that he rarely steals bases, even when playing away from home. Furthermore, his stolen base average against the Boston Red Sox is also low at 0.2. Additionally, his current hit streak, both overall and away, stands at zero, suggesting that he is not in a form that would increase his chances of stealing bases. Finally, the average number of times he's been caught stealing (Cs) in the last five games, both overall and away, is 0.2, further reducing the likelihood of him stealing a base. Therefore, the data suggests that it's statistically unlikely for Judge to steal a base in this game.

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-1250)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet on Paul Goldschmidt's stolen bases is statistically sound due to his recent performance. His last five games show an average of only 0.2 stolen bases, whether overall, away, or against the Boston Red Sox. This indicates a low propensity for stealing bases, a trend that's likely to continue given the consistency across different contexts. Additionally, his current hit streak, both overall and away, stands at only 2. This suggests that Goldschmidt isn't getting on base often enough to significantly increase his chances of stealing bases. Moreover, his caught stealing (Cs) averages are at zero, implying a cautious approach to base running. Hence, the data suggests that it's highly probable Goldschmidt will have fewer than 0.5 stolen bases in the upcoming game.

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