1. What is Over/Under (Totals) Betting?
In Over/Under betting, the bookmaker sets a total number based on their prediction of the combined score of the two teams. Your task is simply to decide if the actual total score will be **Over** that number or **Under** that number.
Example: NBA Game Total
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics
Total Line: 225.5
You would bet either:
- Over 225.5: You predict the combined score will be 226 or higher.
- Under 225.5: You predict the combined score will be 225 or lower.
The final outcome of the game (which team wins) is irrelevant for a standard Totals bet; only the sum of the two teams' scores matters.
2. Over/Under Odds and the Juice
Similar to point spread bets, Over/Under bets typically come with standard odds, most commonly -110 for both the Over and the Under. This means you need to bet $110 to win $100 profit, reflecting the bookmaker's built-in commission, or Vig. Sometimes you might see slight variations like -115, -105, or even split odds depending on market action ("penny lines").
Calculating Payout at -110:
Profit = Stake / (Odds / 100)
Example: $50 bet on Over 225.5 at -110
Profit = $50 / (110 / 100) = $50 / 1.1 = ~$45.45 profit
Total Payout = Stake + Profit = $50 + $45.45 = ~$95.45
3. Pushes in Totals Betting
A "push" occurs in Totals betting if the combined final score of the game lands exactly on the total line set by the bookmaker. In this scenario, your bet is a push, and your original stake is refunded.
Example (using Total Line 225.5):
- If the final score is Lakers 110, Celtics 115 (Combined 225): **Under** bets win, Over bets lose.
- If the final score is Lakers 115, Celtics 111 (Combined 226): **Over** bets win, Under bets lose.
- If the final score is Lakers 113, Celtics 112 (Combined 225): **Push** (since the line was 225). All bets are refunded. (Note: Lines often use .5 increments to prevent pushes).
4. Strategy and Finding Value in Totals
Analyzing Over/Under bets involves evaluating factors that influence the scoring environment of a game. Key considerations include team pace (how quickly they play), offensive and defensive efficiency, player matchups, injuries to key offensive or defensive players, and even external factors like weather in outdoor sports.
Finding value means determining if the bookmaker's total line is accurately set. If your analysis suggests the game is likely to be higher-scoring than the line, the Over might have value. If you expect a lower-scoring game, the Under might be the value bet.
How Bet Better Helps: Bet Better's analytical models predict the most likely combined score of a game by considering numerous factors that influence scoring. We compare our projected total to the bookmaker's Over/Under line to identify potential discrepancies and highlight bets with positive expected value (+EV) on either the Over or the Under.
Conclusion: Totals Betting Requires Scoring Insight
Over/Under (Totals) betting offers a different angle on sports wagering, focusing on the overall game flow and scoring rather than just which team wins. While simple in concept, consistently profiting from Totals bets requires careful analysis of the factors that drive scoring in a specific sport and matchup. By leveraging data-driven tools to predict game totals, you can identify value and make more informed Over/Under decisions.
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