Igor Shesterkin (New York Rangers) Over 23.5 Saves (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Igor Shesterkin making over 23.5 saves in the upcoming game is underpinned by his recent performance data. Shesterkin's last five away games show a strong average of 29.4 saves, significantly above the bet line. Furthermore, his hit rate for the last five away games is 4 out of 5, further suggesting his ability to consistently perform above the set line. This ability is also reflected in the model's prediction of 25.3 saves for the coming game, which exceeds the line. The model’s standard deviation of 7.6 also indicates a reasonable level of variability, suggesting that Shesterkin's performance can surpass the line. Moreover, the relatively high number of shots against Shesterkin, averaging 32 in the last five away games, provides ample opportunities for saves. Therefore, the data indicates a strong likelihood of Shesterkin making more than 23.5 saves in the upcoming game.
Boston Bruins vs New York Rangers : Boston Bruins +1.5 (-179)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for the Boston Bruins 1.5 in the 'Puck Line' market relies heavily on their recent home performance data. The Bruins have shown solid form in their last five home games, boasting an impressive 4-1 record. They have also maintained an average of 2.4 goals per game, which is on par with the Rangers' away game average. Despite the Bruins' less favorable overall record and notably weaker performance against the Rangers in recent encounters, their strong home performance indicators seem to be a key factor in this betting choice. The model prediction also slightly favors the Bruins, which suggests that in spite of the Rangers' overall stronger form, the Bruins have a statistical edge in this particular home game scenario. Assimilating all these factors gives a data-driven rationale for the Boston Bruins 1.5 bet in the Puck Line market.
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