Today's Top NFL Player Props & Predictions, Wednesday 12/31 (Cade Otton Focus)

Betting on Cade Otton to stay under 18.5 reception yards in the upcoming game between Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers seems to be a rational choice, given his recent performance and trends. Otton's overall hit rate for the last 20 games is 0/20 and his current hit streak is at zero. Even when looking at the home games, Otton's hit rate for the last 20 games is just 6/20. Specifically against the Carolina Panthers, Otton's hit rate over the last 10 games is 1/4, indicating a low probability of him exceeding 18.5 reception yards. Despite the exception of his hit rate against the Panthers at home being 1/1, the overwhelming majority of the data suggests a low likelihood of Otton surpassing the 18.5 yard mark. Therefore, the under bet seems statistically justifiable.

Bucky Irving (TB) Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Statistical trends strongly suggest a rationale for betting under 18.5 for Bucky Irving's reception yards in the upcoming Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers game. Looking at Irving's recent performance, he has a current hit rate of 0 across the board: overall, at home, against Carolina, and against Carolina at home. This trend extends to his last 3, 5, 10, and even 20 games. Particularly noteworthy is his performance against Carolina, where he has consistently been unable to hit the mark in all previous matchups. Furthermore, his overall hit rate is less than 50% (10/27), suggesting he is more likely to fall short than exceed the given point. Therefore, based on Irving's historical performance and current trend, betting under 18.5 for his reception yards seems a statistically sound choice.

Bucky Irving (TB) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Betting the under on Bucky Irving's reception yards is statistically sound. His recent performance and trends suggest that he struggles to surpass the 17.5 yard threshold. Consider his overall hit rate in the last 20 games, which is just 25% (5 out of 20). The picture becomes even grimmer when we look at his hit rate against the Carolina Panthers, with a 0% success rate in two games. His performance at home also does not inspire confidence, with a hit rate of 40% (6 out of 15). His current hit streak is at 0, indicating he hasn't recently outperformed this prop. Lastly, his performance in the last 5 games across all categories (overall, home, vs Carolina, and vs Carolina at home) shows a hit rate of 0%. These statistics strongly support a bet for the under on Bucky Irving's reception yards.

Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Betting on the Under 16.5 for Baker Mayfield's rushing yards in the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers is statistically sound. The key data point is Mayfield's overall hit rate for Under 16.5 rushing yards, which is 31 out of 65 attempts. More specifically, when playing at home, Mayfield's hit rate for Under 16.5 rushing yards increases to 18 out of 32 attempts. Furthermore, Mayfield's performance against Carolina has consistently been below the 16.5 yard mark, with a 100% hit rate in the last four encounters. Even more compelling is his record at home against Carolina, where he's hit the Under 16.5 in both attempts. Despite a model edge of only 8.18%, the historical data strongly supports a bet on the Under for Mayfield's rushing yards in this game.

Baker Mayfield (TB) Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Betting on Baker Mayfield to stay under 16.5 rushing yards in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers matchup is driven by his recent performance and trends. Overall, Mayfield has not hit this benchmark in his last ten games (0/10), including his last five home games (0/5). Although Mayfield's rushing performance against the Panthers appears more favorable (4/4), it's important to consider that these games are less frequent, and may not reflect his current form. Furthermore, his overall hit rate is 31/65, which suggests that he fails to surpass 16.5 rushing yards more often than not. Lastly, considering his current streak of not hitting the mark at all (0), the trend seems to continue. The model also gives a slight edge (0.0734604286047214) to the under outcome. Hence, the statistics strongly point towards betting under 16.5 for Mayfield's rushing yards.