Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : Over 43.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The over 43.5 bet for the game between these two teams is backed by a few key statistics. Firstly, the home team has scored an average of 23 points while the away team has scored an average of 24.8 points in their last five games. This averages to a total of 47.8 points, which is comfortably over the 43.5 point line. The home team has also conceded an average of 27 points and the away team an average of 18 points in their last five games. This defensive record increases the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Additionally, the home team's overall EPA (Expected Points Added) for is positive, suggesting they often score more points than expected. The away team's overall EPA against is negative, indicating they often allow fewer points than expected. However, these figures are outweighed by the home team's high average points scored and the away team's strong offensive performance. Lastly, the model edge of 0
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : NA Moneyline (+150)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Based on the provided data, betting on the New Orleans Saints in the head-to-head (h2h) market seems to be a statistically sound decision. The Saints' overall performance in the last five games (4-1) is superior to the home team's (3-2). This is also reflected in the point differentials, with the Saints having a positive point differential of 6.8 compared to the home team's negative differential of -4. The Saints also have a higher overall score (24.8) than the home team (23), indicating they have been scoring more on average. They also have a better Expected Points Added (EPA) differential (8.27 compared to -4.97), suggesting they are more efficient in converting their possessions into points. Furthermore, the Saints have conceded fewer yards (282.2) than the home team (331.4), suggesting a stronger defensive game. The model edge of 0.074 also supports the bet
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints : NA +3 Point Spread (-102)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on the New Orleans Saints having a 3 point spread in the upcoming game is supported by their strong recent performance. The Saints have an overall L5 record of 4-1, demonstrating a strong recent form. In comparison, the home team has a weaker overall L5 record of 3-2 and a home L5 record of 2-3. Furthermore, the Saints have an overall L5 point differential of +6.8, indicating they typically score more than their opponents. The home team, on the other hand, has a negative point differential (-4 and -8.4 overall and at home respectively). The Saints' superior EPA differential (8.272 compared to home team's -4.969) and lower yards against (282.2 vs 331.4) reinforce their defensive strength. While both teams have similar turnover rates, the Saints boast a higher explosive rate for (0.227), suggesting a greater potential for big plays. Overall, the data
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