Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 03/22 (Peyton Watson Highlights): Smart Player Wagers

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to face the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic. While he often dazzles with his playmaking, this matchup presents a compelling case for an under on his assists, set at 10.5. Historically, Jokic has averaged just 9.4 assists against the Trail Blazers at home, a telling statistic given their defensive scheme. In his last five outings against Portland, he's only managed 8.4 assists per game. Sure, he's been solid overall, averaging 11.6 assists lately, but at home, that number dips slightly to 10.8. With the Nuggets' offensive flow more balanced, Jokic may find himself scoring and facilitating less than usual. Given the situation and his recent form-hitting the under in four of his last seven home games-this feels like a smart play. Take the under and watch how this unfolds.

Peyton Watson (Denver Nuggets) Over 5.5 Points (-286)

As the Denver Nuggets prepare to face the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes should be on Peyton Watson to exceed the 5.5 points mark. This young gun has been on fire lately, averaging a formidable 19.2 points over his last five games, with an impressive 20 points at home. When pitted against the Blazers, his scoring average jumps to 13 points per game, showcasing his knack for stepping up in matchups like this.With a flawless record of hitting the over in his last 20 games, Watson's form is simply undeniable. Not to mention, he's maintained a perfect 11-for-11 at home, where the crowd fuels his performance. The Nuggets' home court advantage coupled with Watson's scoring prowess against Portland makes this bet not just a good idea, but a smart one. Expect him to easily surpass that 5.5 mark as he continues his scoring spree.

Josh Minott (Brooklyn Nets) Under 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-122)

As the Brooklyn Nets take on the Sacramento Kings, all eyes will be on Josh Minott, but this might be a prime opportunity to take the under on his points and rebounds combined at 16.5. Minott has been trending down lately, hitting the under in an impressive 18 of his last 20 games. When you dig deeper into his away performances, the numbers are even less encouraging; he's managed to stay under this total in 15 of his last 16 road outings. With Sacramento's defense tightening up and Minott often sharing the court with other scoring options, it's hard to see him breaking through that 16.5 mark. His expected stat value of just 11.16 paints a clear picture: he simply hasn't been a focal point. Given the circumstances, betting on Minott to stay under feels like a smart play as the Kings look to assert themselves at home.

Sam Hauser (Boston Celtics) Over 6.5 Points (-118)

When the Celtics host the Timberwolves, keep an eye on Sam Hauser for the over on 6.5 points. While his recent overall average sits at 5.6, he has a knack for stepping up at home, boosting that to 5.8. But here's where it gets intriguing: facing Minnesota, Hauser has shown he can elevate his game, averaging 10.2 points against them. His last 17 outings tell a compelling story too-an impressive 11 of those saw him surpass our target line. And at home in particular, he's hit that mark 9 out of 15 times. The Celtics will likely need his shooting prowess to stretch the floor, especially against a Timberwolves defense that can be vulnerable. With an expected value of 10.77 points in this matchup, there's a solid case for Hauser to not just meet but exceed the 6.5-point threshold. This game promises to be a great opportunity for him to shine

Josh Hart (New York Knicks) Under 6.5 Assists (-149)

As the Knicks prepare to face the Wizards, all eyes should be on Josh Hart's assist numbers, particularly with the line set at 6.5. While Hart has been a reliable playmaker, averaging 5.2 assists at home recently, his numbers against Washington tell a different story. He's managed just 3.8 assists per game in their last matchups at Madison Square Garden. Hart's recent form also suggests a dip; in his last five games overall, he's only averaged 3.4 assists, and that trend continues to show against the Wizards, where he hasn't exceeded 6.2 assists lately. Given that he's hit the under in three straight home games, this matchup provides a compelling case for the under on his assist total. With the Knicks expected to dominate the game, Hart may find himself less in playmaking mode, making the under on 6.5 assists a savvy bet.