Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 03/22 (Peyton Watson Highlights): Smart Player Wagers

As the Denver Nuggets host the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but we might want to consider a different angle with his assists. While the superstar has dazzled with his playmaking abilities, recent trends suggest he may fall short of that 10.5 assist mark. In the last five matchups against Portland, Jokic has averaged a modest 8.4 assists, dipping slightly lower to 9.4 when playing at home. Sure, he's been a double-digit machine lately, averaging 11.6 assists overall, but the Blazers have a knack for tightening up defensively against him. With a hit rate of just 66% in his last three games and only hitting the mark four out of his last seven at home, it might just be the perfect storm for an under bet here. The numbers whisper that Jokic's playmaking prowess could hit a wall this time around.

Peyton Watson (Denver Nuggets) Over 5.5 Points (-278)

As the Denver Nuggets take the court against the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes should be on Peyton Watson for a solid points prop. With his scoring average peaking at a remarkable 19.2 over the last five games-and even higher at 20 points when playing at home-he's clearly found his rhythm. What's particularly compelling is Watson's recent performance against Portland, where he's registered an impressive 13 points per game at home. That kind of consistent output is hard to ignore, especially considering he hasn't failed to hit the Over in his last 20 games. The Nuggets are also looking to solidify their playoff position, which should translate to increased minutes and opportunities for Watson. Given the implied probability of 73.5% that he'll surpass the 5.5 mark, this looks like a smart play. Expect him to shine on his home court and easily clear that threshold.

Sam Hauser (Boston Celtics) Over 6.5 Points (-116)

As the Boston Celtics prepare to clash with the Minnesota Timberwolves, all eyes should be on Sam Hauser to exceed 6.5 points. This season, Hauser has shown a knack for stepping up at home, hitting the mark in 9 of his last 15 appearances in Boston. In fact, against the Timberwolves, he averages a solid 10.2 points in their last five matchups, with a notable spike to 4.2 at home. While his recent overall average sits at 5.6, there's a hidden gem in his expected stat value of 10.77, revealing how he often rises to the occasion when the lights are brightest. The Celtics will likely lean on Hauser to stretch the defense, and considering he has converted 11 of his last 17 attempts in total, the signs point to a breakout night. With the crowd behind him, don't be surprised if he surpasses that 6.5 mark with ease.

Josh Hart (New York Knicks) Under 6.5 Assists (-147)

As the New York Knicks gear up to host the Washington Wizards, all eyes will be on Josh Hart, particularly when it comes to his assist numbers. While Hart has been an essential playmaker, averaging 5.2 assists at home lately, the trend suggests he may fall short of the 6.5 mark. In fact, his last three home games have seen him notch just 3.8 assists against teams like the Wizards, who can tighten up defensively, limiting his playmaking opportunities.Moreover, Hart's recent average of 3.4 assists overall paints a clearer picture. Despite a solid stretch of six games hitting the over, the matchup dynamics and his home performance suggest that he might just land under this time around. With the Wizards' defense focusing on containing him, betting the under feels like a smart play.

Mohamed Diawara (New York Knicks) Under 6.5 Points (+104)

As the Knicks gear up to face the Wizards at Madison Square Garden, targeting Mohamed Diawara for under 6.5 points feels like a savvy play. Diawara has been struggling to find his rhythm, averaging just 5 points over his last five games-and even less at home, where he's only managed 5.6 points on average. Against the Wizards, he's scored a meager 2.5 points in their last five matchups, and if we look closer, at home, he hasn't found the net at all against them, putting up a big fat zero.With a hit rate of just 6 out of his last 8 outings and an impressive 16 out of 20 at home, the odds are stacked in favor of the under. Given the Knicks' home-court advantage and Diawara's current form, it's hard to see him busting through this number. Keeping it under 6.5 feels like a smart move here!