Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 09/04 (Jeremy Cameron Highlights): Finding the Edge

Patrick Dangerfield's recent form, especially at home, suggests he may struggle to reach 15.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions. Although he averages 14.6 disposals in his last five home games, his historical performances against Brisbane (18.4 disposals in the last five matchups) indicate a potential shortfall. Additionally, with an overall 16.6 disposals average in the last five games, which falls below the model's prediction of 12.5, there's a 19.0% edge favoring the under. Considering his hit rates and streaks, which show a decrease in disposals recently, betting on Dangerfield to stay under 15.5 disposals could be a strategic move for this matchup.

Logan Morris (Brisbane Lions) Over 1.5 Goals (-154)

Logan Morris is a prolific scorer with a recent average of 3.4 goals per game in away fixtures. Facing Geelong, where he maintains a solid 3.5 goals per game average against them away, Morris is poised to capitalize on his trend. His 56.4% goal accuracy and high shot-at-goal frequency of 5 per game further support his ability to snag goals consistently. With a current hit streak of 2 and hitting 4 out of his last 5 away games, Morris showcases remarkable form. The model predicting him to score 2.1 goals, with a significant 16.3% edge, adds confidence to this bet. Backing Morris to score over 1.5 goals against Geelong appears to be a well-founded choice based on his recent performances and statistical trends.

Lachie Weller (Gold Coast SUNS) Under 17.5 Disposals (-132)

The bet on Lachie Weller Under 17.5 disposals is backed by his recent away game trends. With a model-predicted 14.5 disposals and a 15.4% edge, Weller's L5 average of 12.6 disposals in away games, coupled with his lower disposal average (17) against the upcoming opponent, supports this pick. His solid uncontested possessions (8.4) and disposalefficiency (83.0%) are steady, but his turnovers (1.8) could impact his total disposals. Weller's current hit streak of 5 away games and an impressive away hit rate of 5/5 add weight to this bet against Fremantle's strong defense at Optus Stadium.

Dylan Moore (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-128)

Dylan Moore's recent form, averaging 18.4 disposals in his last five away games, positions him well to surpass the set line of 19.5 against the GWS Giants. With a solid contested possessions average of 5.6 and a high disposal efficiency of 64.3%, Moore is poised to impact the game significantly. Facing an opponent where he averages 17.8 disposals away and 19.2 overall, Moore's consistent performance and ability to gain meters (251.2 avg) suggest he can meet the model's prediction of 22.4 disposals with a 15.4% edge. Despite a hit rate of 4/6 in his last six games, Moore's upward trend in disposals makes the Over 19.5 a favorable bet for this matchup.

Dylan Moore (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-128)

Dylan Moore is poised to eclipse 19.5 disposals against the Greater Western Sydney Giants based on his recent form. With an average of 18.4 disposals in his last five away games and facing an opponent where he historically records an average of 17.8 disposals, Moore's consistent performance suggests he can exceed the set line. His proficiency is highlighted by a solid 64.3% disposal efficiency and an average of 9.2 kicks and handballs per game. The model's prediction of 22.4 disposals, coupled with a 15.4% edge, strengthens the case for Moore to maintain his form and contribute effectively to Hawthorn's midfield in this away fixture.