Today's Top AFL Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Saturday 08/30 (Lachie Weller Highlights): Finding the Edge

Ben Ainsworth is a strong bet to score anytime against Fremantle based on his recent performance. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 away games and a goal accuracy of 43.3%, he consistently threatens the opposition's defense. Averaging 2 shots at goal and 0.8 marks inside 50 per game, he is actively involved in Gold Coast's attacking plays. His 5.2 score involvements on average demonstrate his impact in generating scoring opportunities. Considering Fremantle's defense and Ainsworth's recent form, the model’s prediction of 1.1 goals with an 18.0% edge indicates a high likelihood of him snagging at least one goal in this matchup.

Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong Cats) Under 15.5 Disposals (-119)

Patrick Dangerfield's recent form, especially at home, suggests he may struggle to surpass 15.5 disposals against the Brisbane Lions. Despite averaging 14.6 disposals in his last five home games, his efficiency and contested possessions have been inconsistent. Facing Brisbane, who he averages 18.4 disposals against, his stats might not meet the model's predicted 12.5 due to their strong midfield. With a 17.9% edge and his current hit streak of 0, betting on Dangerfield to stay under 15.5 disposals at the MCG could be a strategic move based on his recent performances and historical matchups against the Lions.

Ethan Read (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-200)

Ethan Read is a strong bet to snag a goal anytime against Fremantle, supported by his recent form. With an average of 1 goal per game over the last 5 matches, his goal accuracy of 33.3% away indicates he has been a consistent threat in front of the big sticks. Averaging 2.4 shots at goal and 1.6 marks inside 50 in away games, Read is actively involved in creating scoring opportunities. His 3.6 score involvements per game further highlight his impact in offensive plays. Considering his solid goal-scoring history and involvement in Gold Coast's attacking moves, backing Read to score anytime presents a favorable betting opportunity.

Dylan Moore (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-116)

Dylan Moore's recent performance, averaging 18.4 disposals in his last five away games, suggests he's consistently involved in Hawthorn's midfield play. Facing GWS Giants, where he averages 17.8 disposals in their matchups, Moore is likely to maintain his involvement. With a model predicting 22.4 disposals for him and a solid 5 standard deviation, the data indicates he's poised to exceed the bookmaker's line of 19.5 disposals. Moore's overall disposals average of 23.2 further supports his capability to surpass the set line, especially with a 17.8% model edge enhancing the bet's appeal. Considering his recent form and matchup history, backing Moore to accumulate over 19.5 disposals seems a promising bet.

Dylan Moore (Hawthorn) Over 19.5 Disposals (-116)

Dylan Moore is poised to exceed 19.5 disposals against the GWS Giants. With a model predicting 22.4 disposals (17.8% edge), Moore's recent form supports this bet. In his last five away games, he averaged 18.4 disposals, higher than the line. Facing GWS, he historically averages 17.8 disposals, showing potential to surpass 19.5. His well-rounded stats, like 9.2 kicks and 9.2 handballs per game, indicate he can meet this mark. Despite a recent hit rate of 4/6, Moore's consistency and matchup favor his over. Bet on Moore to maintain his disposals streak in this away game at ENGIE Stadium.