New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals : Over 42.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Over 42.5 in the totals market for the New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals game is statistically reasonable given the performance of both teams in their last five games. Considering the 'score for' data, the Cardinals have averaged 26.8 points per game, while the Saints have averaged 12.4 points per game. This results in a combined average score of 39.2 points, which is below the Over/Under line of 42.5. However, when you factor in the 'score against' data, the Cardinals and Saints have conceded an average of 24 and 23.4 points respectively, bringing the combined average to 47.4, well above the Over/Under line. It is worth noting the model edge of 0.182, which indicates a statistical advantage for the Over outcome. Additionally, both teams have a negative turnover difference, which may lead to more scoring opportunities. Therefore, based on these statistics, an Over 42.
New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals : New Orleans Saints +5.5 Point Spread (-105)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The New Orleans Saints have consistently underperformed in their last 5 games, with a negative point differential of -11, negative EPA (Expected Points Added) differential of -13.88, and a 1-4 overall record. Their offensive performance has been particularly poor, as reflected by a below-average score of 12.4 points and total yards of 258.8 per game. Additionally, they have a high turnover differential of -0.8, indicating issues with maintaining ball possession. However, betting on the Saints with a 5.5 spread has merit due to their home game performance. Their home score for and against is much closer, with a minimal point differential of 0.2, and a slightly improved record of 2-3. Their home game performance indicates that they might be able to cover the 5.5 point spread, especially as the Cardinals also show a negative point differential of -4 in their away games. The model edge of 0
New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals : Over 41.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The Over 41.5 bet for the New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals game is supported by several key stats. Firstly, the Cardinals' last five games have seen an average of 26.8 points scored by them and 24 points scored against them. This alone averages to a total of 50.8 points, which is significantly higher than the 41.5 point line. The Saints, despite having a negative point differential in their last five games, have also seen an average of 23.4 points scored against them. This suggests that their defense allows for high-scoring games. Furthermore, the Cardinals have a positive EPA (expected points added) differential, indicating they typically add to the scoreline effectively. Lastly, both teams have a relatively high explosive rate, suggesting they frequently make plays that significantly progress the game. These factors, combined with the model's edge of 0.171, suggest the Over 41.5 is a promising bet.
New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals : New Orleans Saints +5.5 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistics do not favor a bet on the New Orleans Saints to cover a 5.5 point spread. The Saints' overall performance in their last five games has been poor, with a -11 point differential compared to the Cardinals' 2.8. Further, their Expected Points Added (EPA) differential is -13.87, indicating that they have been less efficient than the Cardinals at creating scoring opportunities. This is further evidenced by their negative turnover differential and lower explosive rate, suggesting they struggle to retain possession and make big plays. Their home performance doesn't improve their outlook significantly either, with a mere 0.2 point differential and negative EPA differential. Their record against the Cardinals in their last five matchups is 0-1. Therefore, statistical analysis suggests that the Cardinals may perform better in this matchup, making betting on the Saints to cover the spread a risky choice.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys : Philadelphia Eagles -7 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Philadelphia Eagles are favored at -7 in the spreads market against the Dallas Cowboys, and the statistical data supports this. The Eagles have been dominating in their last five games, with an overall score of 33 against 18, and a point differential of 15. The EPA (Expected Points Added) differential in the Eagles' favor is significant at 17.08. This means the Eagles' plays are, on average, adding more points to their score than the Cowboys' plays are. The Eagles' performance is also strong in terms of passing and rushing EPAs, which are higher than the Cowboys'. Additionally, the Eagles have a positive turnover differential, indicating they are better at maintaining possession. Finally, the Eagles have a better record against the Cowboys in their last five matchups (3-2), and a perfect overall and home record in their last five games (5-0). These statistics combined provide a strong rationale for betting on the Eagles at -7 in the spreads market.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys : Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 Point Spread (-120)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical data from the last five games strongly favours the Philadelphia Eagles in this matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, justifying a bet on the Eagles at -6.5 in the spread market. The Eagles have an undefeated record in their last five games overall (5-0), at home (5-0), and a winning record against the Cowboys (3-2). They also have a superior points differential (+15) compared to the Cowboys (-5.4). Furthermore, their Expected Points Added (EPA) stats outshine the Cowboys, with the Eagles having a positive EPA difference of 17.08 against the Cowboys' -4.99. This means the Eagles have been more efficient in both offense and defense. Finally, the Eagles have a significant advantage in turnovers, with a difference of +2.6 compared to the Cowboys' +0.2, suggesting that they are more likely to create scoring opportunities through forcing errors. In conclusion, based on the recent performance
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