Saquon Barkley (PHI) Over 119.5 Player rush yds alternate (+182)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Saquon Barkley's betting line of Over 119.5 rushing yards is slightly risky given his recent performance and hit rates. Historically, Barkley's overall hit rate for this bet is only 12 out of 67, and his hit rate against Dallas is even lower at 1 out of 8. His recent performances also don't provide much confidence, with 0 hits in his last 3 games overall and at home. However, Barkley's average rushing yards over the last 5 games (122.6 yards) is slightly over the betting line, and his average at home (132.2 yards) is significantly over the line. Barkley also gets a substantial number of carries per game (24.4 on average), which increases his chances of hitting the over. While the model edge (0.0886) is not particularly high, the bet could still pay off if Barkley performs at his recent averages. This bet is a gamble that relies heavily
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys : Over 46.5 Total Points (-105)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for the Over 46.5 in the 'totals' market for the Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys game is primarily driven by the offensive and defensive performances of both teams in their last five games. The Philadelphia Eagles have been in great form, scoring an average of 33 points per game and conceding just 18. Their EPA (Expected Points Added) shows a strong offensive and defensive performance. The Dallas Cowboys, however, have been weaker defensively, conceding an average of 25.8 points per game. Combining the scoring averages of both teams in their last five games gives a total of 53.4, which is above the Over/Under line of 46.5. This, along with the model's edge of 0.0759, indicates a statistical likelihood that the total score will exceed 46.5, making the 'Over' a reasonable bet.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys : Over 46.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for betting on Over 46.5 in the 'totals' market for the Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys game is based on both teams' scoring trends and defensive vulnerabilities. The Eagles have shown strong offensive performance in their last 5 games, scoring an average of 33 points per game, and have a positive EPA (Expected Points Added) differential, indicating effective offensive plays. They also have a lower turnover rate, which means they retain possession more frequently, providing more scoring opportunities. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have been conceding an average of 25.8 points in their last 5 games, showing defensive vulnerabilities. Their higher EPA against and negative EPA differential suggest they have struggled to prevent opponents from making successful plays. Their scoring for stands at 20.4, adding to the potential total score. Combining the Eagles' offensive strength and Cowboys' defensive struggles, there is a statistically strong case that the total points will exceed 46.5.
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