Avery Williams (ATL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1500)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Based on the data provided, betting on Avery Williams to score a touchdown at any time during the Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys game appears to be a risky proposition. Williams' recent performance does not inspire confidence. His overall hit rate over the last 20 games is just 1/14, which is a success rate of roughly 7%. His away hit rate is slightly better at 1/7, or about 14%. In the last 5 games, his overall and away hit rates are 0/5 and 1/5 respectively. Furthermore, he currently does not have a hit streak, suggesting he's not in a particularly productive phase. Also, his carry averages over the last 5 games—2.4 overall and 2.2 away—are quite low, indicating he's not getting many opportunities to score. Hence, based on these statistics, a bet on Williams to score a touchdown doesn't seem promising.
Jake Ferguson (DAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+320)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Betting on Jake Ferguson to score a touchdown anytime during the Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys game seems like a risky proposition. Ferguson has failed to score in his last five games, with an overall hit rate of 0/5 in recent performances. When playing away, his hit rate remains the same at 0/5. His overall hit rate against the Eagles is slightly better at 1/5, and interestingly, his hit rate against the Eagles on the road is 2/3. Despite these statistics, his current hit streak in all categories is zero, indicating a lack of consistent scoring form recently. Furthermore, Ferguson has only scored 7 touchdowns in 44 games overall and only 2 in 22 away games. The average number of opponent receiving touchdowns in the last five games is only 0.2, reinforcing the low probability of Ferguson scoring. Given these statistics, the bet appears to be highly speculative.
Ryan Flournoy (DAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1100)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Ryan Flournoy to score a touchdown in the Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys game is not strong when considering his recent statistics. Flournoy has failed to score a touchdown in his last 7 attempts overall, 2 attempts on the road, and 1 attempt against the Eagles. This trend continues when considering his performance on the road against the Eagles, where he also failed to score in his only attempt. His hit rate is consistently 0 across all categories, including overall, away games, against Philadelphia, and specifically on the road against Philadelphia. Furthermore, Flournoy is currently on a hit streak of 0 in all these categories, indicating a consistent lack of touchdowns. The model edge of 0.18 is not significant enough to overcome these consistent non-scoring trends. Hence, betting on Flournoy to score a touchdown does not seem statistically justified.
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