Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns Prediction & Picks (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Key Factor): Odds Analysis & Top Props

The under 8.5 rebounds bet for Chet Holmgren is primarily based on his average rebounding performance in recent games. Holmgren's last five games at home show an average rebound count of 7.6, which is below the under bet of 8.5. Moreover, when playing against the Suns, his average rebound count is even lower, at 7.0. At home against the Suns, this average drops further to 6.0 rebounds. This suggests that he seems to struggle more with rebounding against this specific team, especially when playing at home. In addition, his expected stat value is 7.7, again below the betting line. Finally, Holmgren's hit rate for under 8.5 rebounds in the last 12 overall games and last seven home games stands at 9/12 and 6/7 respectively, indicating a consistent underperformance against this rebound threshold.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 6.5 Assists (-152)

The under bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's assists seems to be a solid choice based on his recent performance statistics. His average assists in the last five games overall is 5.6, which is below the 6.5 threshold set for this bet. When we look at his performance against the Phoenix Suns, his average assists are even lower at 5.4. Furthermore, when playing against the Suns at home, his assists average drops to 4.5. This suggests that he tends to have fewer assists in this specific matchup, particularly when playing at home. The expected stat value of 5.75 also supports the under bet, indicating that the expected outcome is below the set point. Therefore, the data suggests a higher likelihood of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander having under 6.5 assists in the upcoming game.

Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns) Under 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-106)

The under 10.5 bet for Devin Booker's combined rebounds and assists is backed by several statistical trends. Despite Booker's average of 12 combined rebounds and assists in away games, his performance against the Oklahoma City Thunder specifically suggests a lower total. In his last five games against this opponent, both at home and away, his combined total averages to only 8 (3.4 rebounds and 4.6 assists). Further, Booker's recent performance suggests a decrease in productivity with an overall hit rate of only 3/3 in his last three games and 12/20 in his last 20 away games. The expected stat value of 10.05 also falls under the set line of 10.5. These statistics indicate a high chance of Booker underperforming the set line of 10.5 combined rebounds and assists.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns : Phoenix Suns Under 114.5 Team Total Points (-526)

The bet is based on the statistical prediction that the Phoenix Suns will score under 114.5 points. This prediction is supported by the model prediction of 101.95, which is significantly lower than the outcome point of 114.5. Moreover, the Phoenix Suns' Away Record (2-3) suggests they struggle to consistently perform well on the road. Their last 5 away games have seen them score an average of 118 points, which while high, is still within range of the projected score. Additionally, the Suns' opponents in these games have averaged 119.8 points, indicating the Suns' defense may not be strong enough to give them the possession necessary to exceed 114.5 points. Therefore, statistically, the Suns scoring under 114.5 points appears more likely.