Justin Jefferson (MIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+140)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Justin Jefferson to score a touchdown at any time in the game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions appears to be a marginally favorable proposition, with a model edge of 0.0855. Although Jefferson's overall and home hit rates have been weak recently (0/5 in last 5 games and 0/10 in last 10 games), his performance against the Lions has been much stronger. He has scored in 3 out of the last 5 games and 2 out of the last 3 games he has played against Detroit. Notably, when playing against Detroit at home, Jefferson maintains a solid hit rate of 2/3 in both the last 3 and 10 games. This historical performance against Detroit, particularly at home, suggests Jefferson has a reasonable chance of scoring a touchdown in this game despite his recent dry spell.
Jalen Nailor (MIN) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The statistical data strongly supports a bet on Jalen Nailor for Under 16.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market. Nailor's recent performance has been underwhelming; he has not hit the over in his last 10 games overall, or in his last 5 home games. His performance specifically against Detroit also does not instill confidence, with zero hits in his last 2 games against the Lions, and zero hits in his single home game against Detroit. Furthermore, his current hit streaks in all categories are at zero, indicating a lack of momentum. Finally, his overall hit rate is only 12 out of 38, with a home hit rate of 5 out of 16. All these numbers suggest that Nailor is unlikely to exceed 16.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Lions.
Aaron Jones (MIN) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Aaron Jones' recent performance and historical trends do not suggest a high probability of scoring a touchdown in the upcoming game against the Detroit Lions. Over his last five games, Jones has not scored a touchdown (0/5 overall hit rate). Even in his last 10 games, his hit rate is low (0/10 overall hit rate). When looking specifically at his performance at home, the picture is also not promising, with no touchdowns scored in his last three or five home games. His record against Detroit is slightly more promising, with a touchdown scored in 1 out of 3 recent games, both overall and at home. However, his overall hit rate against Detroit is low (1/5), which further lowers the likelihood. Given this data, the bet on Aaron Jones scoring a touchdown seems risky despite the model edge of 0.0577567176707542. It's crucial to note that past performance isn't a perfect predictor, but it does provide a statistically driven perspective.
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