Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos : NA -12.5 Point Spread (-115)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Denver Broncos -12.5 in the 'spreads' market is based on several key statistics. Firstly, the Broncos' away record overall in the last 5 games has been strong, with 4 wins and 1 loss. This demonstrates a consistent performance, providing confidence in their ability to win. In terms of scoring, the Broncos have also performed well in recent games, averaging 25.4 points for and 24.4 against. This is significantly better than the home team's score for (16.6) and against (22.6). Additionally, the Broncos have a positive overall L5 EPA difference (0.682), while the home team's EPA difference is negative (-7.632). The Broncos also have a higher explosive rate for (0.227) compared to the home team (0.166), indicating their ability to make big plays. All these statistics suggest that the Broncos are likely to cover a -12.5 spread, hence
Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos : NA Moneyline (+660)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Given the detailed betting statistics, the rationale for placing a bet on the Kansas City Chiefs in the head-to-head (h2h) market is based on their superior performance metrics over the last five games, particularly when playing away. The Chiefs have a stronger scoring rate, with an average of 25.4 points in their last five games compared to the home team's 16.6 points. They also have a positive overall point differential (+1), against the home team's negative differential (-6). The Chiefs' Expected Points Added (EPA) for and against also indicate better offensive and defensive efficiency. They have a positive EPA difference (0.682), while the home team has a significant negative EPA difference (-7.63). Moreover, the Chiefs have been performing well on the road with a 5-0 record in their last five away games, while the home team has a less impressive 3-2 home record. These factors, combined with the model's edge of
Kareem Hunt (KC) Under 18.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The under bet on Kareem Hunt's rushing yards seems statistically sound given his recent performance and trends. Hunt has not hit the over on this prop bet in his last 5, 10, or even 20 games overall. Additionally, his performance at home and against the Denver Broncos also support this under bet. He has a hit rate of 0/5 and 0/10 at home in his last 5 and 10 games, respectively. When playing against the Broncos, his hit rate is 0/2 overall and 0/1 when at home. His current hit streak in all categories is zero, which further emphasizes his recent underperformance. Based on these stats, it seems likely that Hunt will rush for under 18.5 yards in the upcoming game against the Denver Broncos.
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