Collin Gillespie (Phoenix Suns) Under 4.5 Assists (-159)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Phoenix Suns head to Minnesota, all eyes will be on Collin Gillespie, but I'm leaning towards the under on his assist total of 4.5. Despite his recent success, where he's hit the over in five straight games, context is key. With the Timberwolves' defense tightening up at home, they've allowed opponents to average just 3.08 assists to guards like Gillespie in their last four matchups. Additionally, playing away from home can often stifle a player's rhythm, and Gillespie has proven to struggle in this environment, hitting the under in all four of his last away games. With an implied probability of 61.3% backing this bet, I believe the trend continues and we see Gillespie fall short of that 4.5 mark in what could be a tightly contested game.

Jalen Green (Houston Rockets) Under 26.5 Points + Rebounds (-128)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As we gear up for the Timberwolves-Suns clash, Jalen Green's recent performance points to a potential under on his combined points and rebounds line of 26.5. Over his last five games, he's averaging just 9.6 points and 5.2 rebounds-well below the mark we're targeting. Even when he plays away, those numbers barely tick up, sitting at 11.4 points and 4.2 rebounds. The Timberwolves' defense has been particularly stifling at home, allowing opponents an average of only 16.2 points and 3.2 rebounds against them. Green's success against this matchup may seem promising, but let's not forget that he's only averaging 22.4 points and 4.2 rebounds versus them recently. With a trend towards underperforming and a favorable defensive setup for Minnesota, betting on Green to stay under 26.5 feels like a smart move.

Jaden McDaniels (Minnesota Timberwolves) Over 3.5 Rebounds (-161)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When you look at Jaden McDaniels' recent performances, it's clear he's been a rebounding machine, especially at home. Over the last five games, he's averaging a solid 4.6 boards per game, and when you narrow that down to his home games, he's been pulling down 4.0 rebounds. This matchup against the Phoenix Suns is ripe for him to shine, as he's averaged 4.4 rebounds against them at home in recent meetings. What's even more compelling is his perfect hit rate of 3/3 for the over on this prop in both the last three games overall and at home. With an expected stat value of 4.58 and an implied probability of 61.7% for hitting the over, it feels almost like a no-brainer. If McDaniels stays active, expect him to clear 3.5 boards with relative ease, especially in front of a home crowd eager to see him thrive.

See All Our Picks

You're viewing a preview. Subscribe today to unlock the full article and gain access to all our expert insights and best bets - every single day.

Get Bet Better Pro