Jeremy Pena (HOU) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-833)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 0.5 bet for Jeremy Pena's stolen bases is a strong choice based on his recent performance data. Over the last five games, Pena's stolen base average, whether overall, at home, or against the Minnesota Twins, is only 0.2, which is significantly lower than the line of 0.5. Furthermore, his current hit streak is only one game overall and three games at home, which suggests that his opportunities to steal bases may be limited. Additionally, the average number of times he's been caught stealing at home is 0.2, indicating that when he does attempt to steal, there's a chance he could be unsuccessful. These statistics collectively suggest that it's unlikely for Pena to steal more than 0.5 bases in the upcoming game, making the under bet a solid choice.

Chris Paddack (MIN) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-312)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

This bet on Chris Paddack to allow over 0.5 walks is driven by his consistent performance data. In the last five games, Paddack has averaged 2 walks per game overall, 2.2 walks when playing away, and 2 walks against the Houston Astros specifically. These averages are significantly higher than the 0.5 line set for this bet. Additionally, Paddack's innings pitched and outs averages indicate he typically plays long enough into games for a walk to occur. His current hit streaks, both overall and away, further demonstrate his tendency to allow hits, which can correlate with walks. Therefore, the statistical patterns suggest Paddack is likely to allow at least one walk during the game, making this a solid bet.

Yainer Diaz (HOU) Under 1.5 Hits (-256)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The under 1.5 bet for Yainer Diaz in the Batter Hits market is statistically sound given his recent performance. Over his last five games, Diaz's overall and home batting average is just 0.8 hits per game, well below the line of 1.5. Even when facing the Twins, his average only increases to 1.2 hits per game, still below the line. Furthermore, his plate appearances (PA) are relatively low, averaging 3.4 overall and at home, and even against the Twins, his PA average is 4.6. This suggests Diaz has fewer opportunities to hit. Despite his current hit streaks, the under bet is supported by his lower hit and PA averages. The numbers indicate that it is less likely for Diaz to get more than 1.5 hits in the game.

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