Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Over 0.5 alternate_team_totals (-5000)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Detroit Tigers have shown consistent scoring ability, averaging 2.8 runs at home over their last five games. This is significantly higher than the 0.5 run line set for this bet. Furthermore, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been allowing an average of 3.6 runs in their last five away games, which indicates a vulnerability in their defense that the Tigers can exploit. Moreover, the model prediction suggests that the Tigers are likely to score around 5.77 runs in this game, which is well over the 0.5 run line. Even though the Tigers have a 1-4 record against the Pirates in recent match-ups, their overall scoring ability combined with the Pirates' defensive weakness makes this bet a solid choice.

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Over 4.5 Total Runs (-667)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The 'Over 4.5' bet for the Total Runs market in the Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates game is a good choice based on the teams' recent scoring and defensive records. The Pirates' average runs scored over the last 5 games (4.2) combined with the Tigers' average runs allowed (1.8) already exceeds the line of 4.5. Additionally, the Tigers' average runs scored (2.8) and the Pirates' average runs allowed (3.8) also surpasses the line. Furthermore, the Pirates have demonstrated a strong batting performance with an average of 10.2 hits over the last 5 games, which could contribute to a higher scoring game. Finally, the model prediction of 10.25 total runs significantly exceeds the line, suggesting a high probability of the total runs going over 4.5.

Bailey Falter (PIT) Over 2.5 Hits Allowed (-1429)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Bailey Falter's recent performance indicates a strong probability of allowing over 2.5 hits in his upcoming game against the Detroit Tigers. His last five games show an average of 4.8 hits allowed overall and 4.6 hits allowed when playing away. These averages far exceed the 2.5 line set for the bet. Additionally, Falter's current away hit streak stands at 8 games, suggesting a pattern of consistently allowing hits when playing away. His innings pitched (IP) and outs averages also suggest he typically stays in the game long enough to allow more than 2.5 hits. Therefore, based on Falter's recent performance and current streak, the bet on over 2.5 hits allowed is statistically supported.

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