Jameson Williams (DET) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+220)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Jameson Williams to score a touchdown at any time during the Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears game could be considered a risky option based on his recent performance and trends. Williams has not been consistent in scoring touchdowns, reflected in his overall hit rate of 11/38 and a zero hit streak in his overall and home games. His performance against Chicago is slightly better, with a hit rate of 2/5 and a current hit streak of 1. However, his performance at home against Chicago is less promising, with a hit rate of 1/3 and a current hit streak of 0. The model edge of just under 10% also suggests that this is a riskier bet. Therefore, while there's a chance for Williams to score, the statistical evidence suggests it's less likely.

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears : NA -6.5 Point Spread (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Based on the statistics provided, the bet on Detroit Lions at -6.5 is a favorable one. In recent performances, the Lions have outperformed their unnamed opponent. Detroit's offense has been potent, scoring an average of 29.8 points per game over the last five games, significantly higher than the opponent's 16. They have also been more effective on both passing and rushing plays, as shown by their higher EPA (expected points added) for both categories. Moreover, the Lions' defense has been relatively solid, allowing fewer total yards and points compared to their opponent. Turnovers are another area where the Lions have an edge, with the opponent losing the ball more frequently. Lastly, the Lions' historical record against this opponent is favorable, having won four of the last five matches. All these factors together provide a strong rationale for betting on the Detroit Lions to cover a -6.5 point spread in this game.

Jameson Williams (DET) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The betting rationale for Jameson Williams to score a touchdown at any time during the Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears game is not strong based on recent performance statistics. Williams' overall hit rate is 11/38, showing that he only scores in approximately 29% of his games. Although he has a slightly better rate against the Bears (2/5 or 40%), his hit rate at home is quite low (6/19 or ~32%). His recent performance is even less encouraging; over the last 5 games, he has only scored in 2 (40%), and he is currently on a 0-game streak for scoring touchdowns overall and at home. The model's edge is minimal at around 8.9%, suggesting that the predictive model doesn't see a strong likelihood of Williams scoring. Therefore, based on these statistics, a bet on Williams to score a touchdown at any time during the game would be a high-risk choice.

Kalif Raymond (DET) Under 1.5 Receptions (-175)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Betting under 1.5 for Kalif Raymond's player receptions in the Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears game is statistically reasonable. The primary reason being Raymond's past performances and hit rates against the Bears. His overall hit rate against the Bears is low, at just 1/6, and even at home, it's only improved slightly to 1/3. When we delve deeper and look at his last five games against the Bears, his hit rate is only 1/5, reinforcing the trend of his underperformance against this team. Raymond also has a current hit streak of zero, which suggests he's not currently in a rhythm or form that would suggest an upswing in receptions. Lastly, his overall hit rate is 23/70, which, while not abysmal, doesn't inspire a ton of confidence for this prop bet. Therefore, it's statistically justifiable to bet under 1.5 for Raymond's player receptions in this game.

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears : Under 46.5 Total Points (-108)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The key rationale for betting 'Under 46.5' in the totals market of this NFL game lies in the recent performance data of both teams. The home team's overall last 5 games (L5) stats reveal a combined score of 56.2, while the away team's combined score stands at just 39.8. However, when considering the away team's L5 games, their scoring average drops further to 44, which is below the line of 46.5. The away team's negative EPA (Expected Points Added) and negative point differential in recent games also suggest a struggling offense. Additionally, both teams have a negative turnover differential, indicating possible missed scoring opportunities. Despite the home team's slightly higher scoring average, the away team's poor offensive performance is likely to keep the total score under 46.5. All these statistical trends suggest a lower-scoring game, making the 'Under 46.5' a reasonable betting choice.

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears : Under 47.5 Total Points (-118)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on the Under 47.5 in the 'totals' market is primarily supported by the recent scoring and performance stats of the away team. The away team has been struggling lately, averaging just 16 points in their last 5 games overall and a mere 15.6 points in their last 5 away games. This is well below the under point of 47.5, especially when considering they will face the home team who has a decent defensive record in their last 5 games, allowing an average of 26.4 points. The home team also has a negative turnover differential in their last 5 home games, which could potentially limit their scoring opportunities. Additionally, the away team's low EPA (expected points added) for both passing and rushing indicates they have been inefficient in creating scoring opportunities. These factors combine to suggest that the total points scored in this game are likely to stay under 47.5.

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