Dallas Stars vs Los Angeles Kings : Under 9.5 Total Goals (-5000)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The betting rationale for choosing 'Under 9.5' in the 'Alternate Totals' market for the Dallas Stars vs Los Angeles Kings game is based on an analysis of the team's last five (L5) performances. The Dallas Stars have an average scoring rate of 2.4 goals per game in their last five home games, while their opponents, the Los Angeles Kings, have only managed to score an average of 1.2 goals per game in their last five away games. This low-scoring trend is consistent with the overall L5 statistics, where both teams have scored less than 2.5 goals per game on average. Given these statistics, it is highly unlikely that the total number of goals will exceed 9.5 in the upcoming game. This conclusion is further supported by the model's prediction of 1.55 goals, indicating a low-scoring game.
Casey DeSmith (Dallas Stars) Over 24.5 Saves (-105)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Casey DeSmith's betting rationale relies heavily on his recent performance data, particularly his overall L5 statistics. With an average of 28 saves in the last five games, DeSmith has consistently exceeded the over/under line of 24.5. His overall shots against average of 30.2 further reinforces this trend as it shows his workload has been substantial. Even though DeSmith's home games saves average is 21.2, his recent form shown in the overall hit rate in his last five games (4/5) indicates he's been stepping up his game. Additionally, the model's prediction of 25.71 saves for DeSmith aligns with this trend, supporting the bet on over 24.5 saves. Although his home games current hit streak is zero, considering DeSmith's recent overall performance and the model's prediction, betting on him to make over 24.5 saves is statistically reasoned.
Jason Robertson (Dallas Stars) Yes Anytime Goalscorer (+150)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Jason Robertson to score at any time during the Dallas Stars vs Los Angeles Kings game is backed by his impressive performance in recent games. Over his last five home games, he has averaged 1.2 goals per game, suggesting a high probability of scoring. His shot average of 3.8 further strengthens this prediction, as more shots typically correlate with more scoring opportunities. Furthermore, Robertson's hit rate over his last four home games is 75% (3/4), indicating a consistently strong performance. While there is a degree of variability (indicated by the model prediction SD of 0.42), the model's prediction of 0.43 supports the likelihood of him scoring. Despite his current hit streak being zero, his overall hit rate in the last 10 games is a solid 70% (7/10). These stats provide a strong rationale for the bet on Robertson to score in this game.
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