Marvin Bagley III (Dallas Mavericks) Under 7.5 Rebounds (-141)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Mavericks prepare to host the Warriors, targeting Marvin Bagley III for under 7.5 rebounds feels like a smart play. Over his last five games, Bagley has averaged just 6.4 boards, and when we narrow that down to his home performances, it dips slightly to 6.6. The Warriors aren't exactly a rebounding powerhouse, and against them, Bagley has averaged only 5 rebounds in their recent matchups-3.7 of those at home. Plus, he's hit the under in four of his last five games, and he's been on point at home, hitting the mark in all three recent outings. With an expected stat value of just 5.88, the numbers are leaning heavily toward the under here. When you combine these stats with the Mavericks' home court advantage, it's hard to see Bagley surpassing that 7.5 threshold.

Kristaps Porzingis (Golden State Warriors) Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds (-167)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As Kristaps Porzingis steps onto the court against the Golden State Warriors, the spotlight is on his ability to make a significant impact. While his recent averages of 16.6 points and 4.2 rebounds might suggest he's in a lull, there's more to this story. When facing the Warriors, he ramps up his game, posting an impressive 18 points per outing on the road against them. With the stakes high in this matchup, expect Porzingis to be more aggressive on the offensive end. His recent performances suggest he's primed for a breakout, especially given his expected stat value of nearly 25. The Warriors have struggled to contain versatile bigs, and Porzingis has the skill set to exploit that weakness. Therefore, taking the over on his combined points and rebounds at 19.5 feels like a smart play. He's on the verge of a big night, and this could be the moment he delivers.

Daniel Gafford (Dallas Mavericks) Under 8.5 Rebounds (-125)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Dallas Mavericks get set to face the Golden State Warriors, all eyes should be on Daniel Gafford, but for the wrong reasons. While he's had a solid run recently, averaging 11.2 rebounds across his last five games, the context tells a different story. At home, Gafford's numbers dip to 8.6 rebounds, and against the Warriors, he's only managed an average of 8.4-just under our target of 8.5. Moreover, the Mavericks' pace and style can limit Gafford's opportunities on the boards. With a hit rate of only 16 out of his last 20 home games and an expected stat value of just 7.35, the under is looking increasingly appealing. Given the matchup and the trends, taking the under on Gafford's rebounds feels like a savvy play in this clash.

Draymond Green (Golden State Warriors) Under 1.5 Threes Made (-103)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Warriors head to Dallas, all eyes will be on Draymond Green, but betting on him to drain over 1.5 threes might be a stretch. While he's averaged a respectable 2 threes made in his last five games overall, his away performance tells a different story. In fact, he's only hitting 1.4 threes on the road and a mere 0.2 against the Mavericks in their last matchup away. With an overall hit rate of 8 out of 12, it's important to note that those numbers skew heavily towards home games. The pressure of playing in Dallas could stifle his shooting rhythm, especially considering the Mavericks' defensive schemes aimed at limiting perimeter shots. At an expected stat value of 1.35, the under on Green's threes feels like a smart play-don't expect him to find his range in this matchup.

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