Mitch Keller (PIT) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-556)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Mitch Keller to have over 0.5 walks allowed is a good choice based on his past performances. His last five overall games show an average of 2 walks allowed, and even when playing away, his average only slightly decreases to 1.6. When specifically playing against the Red Sox, his walks allowed average increases to 3. His current hit streak is 8 overall and 2 away, indicating a consistent pattern of permitting hits. This, along with his average innings pitched, suggests he's often on the mound long enough for a walk to occur. Furthermore, his outs average doesn't significantly increase when playing away, meaning he doesn't generally improve his performance in this aspect on the road. These factors together indicate a high likelihood of Keller allowing at least one walk in the upcoming game.
Romy Gonzalez (BOS) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-526)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under 0.5 bet on Romy Gonzalez for Batter Stolen Bases is a solid choice considering his recent performance data. His last five games overall and at home show no stolen bases, indicating a lack of aggressive base running. Additionally, his average caught stealing (Cs) is 0, suggesting he's not taking risks on the bases. Even against the Pirates, his stolen base average is only 0.5, barely meeting the line. Despite his impressive hit streaks, there's no evidence these hits are translating into stolen bases. Therefore, the data strongly suggests that Gonzalez is unlikely to steal a base in the upcoming game.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT) Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (-909)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Isiah Kiner-Falefa for Under 0.5 in the Batter Stolen Bases market is driven by his recent performance data. Over his last five games, Kiner-Falefa's overall and away stolen base averages are 0.2 and 0, respectively. This suggests a low likelihood of him stealing a base in the upcoming game. Moreover, his average of caught stealing (Cs) is zero, both overall and away, indicating that he isn't attempting to steal bases frequently. Even when considering his current hit streaks, they don't translate directly into stolen bases. His overall current hit streak is 3, and his away hit streak is 6, but these don't necessarily increase his chances of stealing a base. Therefore, based on these stats, it is statistically reasonable to bet Under 0.5 for Kiner-Falefa's stolen bases in the upcoming game.
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