Isaiah Likely (BAL) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Statistical data suggests that betting on Isaiah Likely for Under 17.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is a compelling option. This is largely driven by Likely's recent performance, indicating a downward trend. His overall hit rate in the last 3, 5, and 10 games is 0/3, 1/5, and 3/10 respectively, with a similar pattern at home games. Furthermore, his current hit streak for both overall and home games is 0. While Likely's hit rate against Houston is 2/2, considering his recent overall and home performance, it's reasonable to expect that he might struggle to surpass the 17.5 yards mark. The model edge of 0.111795063905804 also leans towards the 'under' outcome. Therefore, statistical trends suggest a higher probability for Isaiah Likely to stay under 17.5 reception yards in the upcoming game against the Texans.
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans : Over 40.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The Over 40.5 bet in the 'totals' market for this game seems statistically favored, primarily due to the recent scoring performances of both teams. The home team has an impressive last five games (L5) score-for average of 31.2 points, substantially above the targeted 40.5. Even considering the away team's lower score-for average of 15.6, the combined average is 46.8, which is comfortably over the set total. Additionally, the home team has a strong record at home, winning 4 out of the last 5 games, and outscored their opponents by an average of 14.4 points. This is complemented by their 3-0 record against this particular opponent in the last 5 matchups, further suggesting a high-scoring game. While the away team's recent scoring is less impressive, their score-against average of 14.8 provides a buffer for the total to go over 40.5
Justice Hill (BAL) Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The statistical evidence suggests betting under 14.5 for Justice Hill's receiving yards in the Ravens vs Texans game. Recent performance data indicates that Hill has not been heavily involved in the Ravens' passing game. In his last five games overall, Hill has gone under this total five times, and at home, he has gone under in four out of five games. His current streaks also suggest the under, as he has not hit over this total in his most recent games, both overall and at home. Even though he has hit over when playing against Houston, these instances are infrequent and might represent outliers rather than a consistent trend. Given the model's slight edge for the under and Hill's recent lackluster receiving performance, the under 14.5 seems a reasonable bet for this player prop.
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