Isaiah Likely (BAL) Under 17.5 Receiving Yards (-116)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The under 17.5 bet for Isaiah Likely's reception yards in the Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans game is favored due to Likely's poor recent performance. His overall hit rate in the last 10 games is just 30% (3/10), and his home hit rate is even lower at 10% (1/10). This negative trend continues in his last 20 games, where he only hit the mark 30% of the time (6/20). Moreover, Likely is currently on a zero-game hit streak for both overall and home games, suggesting he is not in form to surpass the 17.5 reception yards mark. Despite his positive hit rate against the Texans, his recent performance and current form indicate a higher probability for under 17.5 reception yards. This is supported by a model edge of 0.0948, further validating the bet decision.
Isaiah Likely (BAL) Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Isaiah Likely for Under 16.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market is statistically justified by his recent performance and hit rates. Overall, Likely has been underperforming, as indicated by his hit rate in the last 5 games (1/5) and the last 10 games (2/10). His performance at home has been no better, with a hit rate of only 1/5 in the last 5 home games and 1/10 in the last 10 home games. His current streak for hitting the Under is also at 0, both overall and at home. Despite having a perfect hit rate against Houston (2/2), his overall performance trend suggests he is likely to fall under 16.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market. In addition, the model edge of 0.082 suggests there is a slight advantage in betting on the Under for Likely's receiving yards.
Derrick Henry (BAL) Over 9.5 Player reception yds alternate (+124)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Derrick Henry to go over 9.5 receiving yards in the Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans game might seem challenging at first glance. His recent performance metrics show a lackluster overall hit rate. His last five games have not seen him surpass the 9.5-yard mark, and his hit rate against Houston is just 1 in 5. However, there are factors that could tilt the scales in favor of this bet. For instance, his overall hit rate is just above 50% (29/56), showing he can achieve this feat. Furthermore, his home hit rate is somewhat encouraging, with 17 of 27 games surpassing the 9.5-yard mark. This demonstrates that Henry tends to perform better at home. However, considering the recent negative streaks and his performance against Houston, it is a risky bet. The model edge of 0.073 is also relatively slim, suggesting that it might not be a value bet.
Derrick Henry (BAL) Over 5.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Derrick Henry to go over 5.5 receiving yards in the Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans game seems like a risky proposition, due to his recent performance and statistical trends. Henry's overall hit rate for this prop bet is around 57% (32/56), but his recent performance shows a downward trend - he's gone 0/3 in his last three games and 0/5 in his last five. Furthermore, his home performance (where this game is being played) is not encouraging either, with a hit rate of 0/3 in his last three home games. His performance against Houston is also poor, with a hit rate of only 40% in his last five games against them. The only positive indicator is his hit rate at home overall (63%, 17/27), but this is offset by his recent home and overall performance. Given these statistics, it seems like a long shot that Henry will exceed 5.5 receiving yards in this game
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans : Over 40.5 Total Points (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The rationale for betting on Over 40.5 in the 'totals' market for this game is largely driven by offensive performance and scoring data. The home team has a strong scoring record, averaging 31.2 points in their last 5 games overall, and an impressive 33.6 points in their last 5 home games. Additionally, they have a significantly high explosive rate, which signals the ability to make game-changing plays that can lead to high scoring. On the other hand, the away team has shown a weak defense, allowing an average of 19 points per game in their last 5 away games. This suggests that the home team should be able to score a good number of points. The away team's offense may not be as strong, but they still average 15.6 points in their last 5 games overall and 15 points in their last 5 away games. This, combined with the home team's defense allowing an average of 32 points in their last
Baltimore Ravens vs Houston Texans : Over 40.5 Total Points (-115)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Over 40.5 in the 'totals' market for this NFL game seems to be a reasonable choice considering the past performance data and records of both teams. The home team has an average score of 31.2 points in their last five games, indicating a strong offensive performance. Additionally, they have allowed an average of 32 points in these games, suggesting a weaker defense. The away team, on the other hand, has scored an average of 15.6 points and conceded an average of 14.8 points in their last five games. By combining the scoring averages of both teams, we get an estimated total of 46.8 points, which is significantly higher than the proposed total of 40.5. This, combined with the model edge of 0.0304439507703731, indicates a higher probability of the total score exceeding 40.5 points.
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