Toronto Maple Leafs vs Pittsburgh Penguins : Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 (-159)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5 is supported by several key statistics. The Penguins have a strong away record, winning 4 out of their last 5 away games, with an average of 3.2 goals per game and only 2 goals against per game. This suggests they have been effective at both scoring and defending in away games. Additionally, the Leafs have an equal average of goals scored and goals against in their last 5 games, indicating they have struggled to outscore their opponents. Furthermore, the Penguins have demonstrated a robust defensive performance, with lower average goals against both at away games and overall compared to the Leafs. While the Leafs have had a better record against the Penguins, recent performance indicates the Penguins have the capacity to keep the game within 1.5 goals.
Anthony Stolarz (Toronto Maple Leafs) Over 23.5 Saves (-115)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
The bet on Anthony Stolarz for Over 23.5 in the 'Player Total Saves' market is supported by his recent performance data and model insights. In his last five home games, Stolarz has averaged 24 saves per game, which is already above the 23.5 line. This is consistent with the model's prediction of 24.9 saves for the upcoming game. Moreover, Stolarz's hit streak at home is currently 4, implying a consistent performance in exceeding the predicted line. His overall saves average in the last five games is even higher at 27.2, further supporting the rationale for the 'over' bet. Also, considering the standard deviation of 7.11 from the model's prediction, the Over 23.5 outcome falls well within this range, signifying a reasonable level of certainty based on Stolarz's recent performance.
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