Today's NBA Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds (Tuesday 12/16 Slate)

The Houston Rockets are a strong pick for the Moneyline market against the Denver Nuggets. Despite the model predicting a Nuggets win, the Rockets' recent performance data suggests otherwise. They have a superior overall L5 record at 4-1 compared to the Nuggets' 2-3. Importantly, their overall L5 team score is higher (116) than the Nuggets (110.6). Although the Nuggets have a better home record and head-to-head record, the Rockets' recent form and scoring capacity cannot be overlooked. Furthermore, while the Nuggets' home scoring average is slightly better, the Rockets' away scoring average is competitive at 109.2. Consequently, these statistics indicate the Rockets could potentially outperform expectations.

Boston Celtics vs Detroit Pistons : Boston Celtics -1.5 (-115)

The bet on 'Boston Celtics -1.5' in the Point Spread market is favourable due to a combination of both team and head-to-head statistics. The Celtics have a strong recent home record, winning all of their last five games, and have outscored their opponents by an average of 7 points per game. In contrast, the Pistons have struggled on the road, losing four of their last five away games with a significant defensive leakage, allowing their opponents to score an average of 114.8 points. Furthermore, the Celtics have dominated recent matchups against the Pistons, winning all of the last four encounters. This combined with their superior scoring ability, particularly at home, suggests they are likely to cover a -1.5 point spread.

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors : Miami Heat -5.5 (-118)

Betting on 'Miami Heat -5.5' is a promising decision considering their recent performance and scoring ability. The Heat have a strong home record, winning 4 out of their last 5 games, compared to the Raptors who have a weaker away record, winning only 3. The Heat have also been scoring significantly higher, with an average of 123.4 points per game at home over the last 5 games, compared to the Raptors' 110.6 points away. While the Heat's record against the Raptors isn't strong, their current form and home advantage make them likely to cover the spread. Additionally, the Heat's opponents typically score 120 points at home, but the Raptors have only managed an average of 108.6 points in their last 5 away games, suggesting they may struggle to exceed their average.

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors : Toronto Raptors 6 (-110)

The bet on the Toronto Raptors with a 6 point spread is a strong choice when considering the team's recent performance data. Despite being the away team, the Raptors have a superior record against the Heat in their last five encounters (3-1). Although the Raptors have a slightly lower overall score in their last five games (112.8) compared to the Heat (121.4), their defense has been more effective, allowing fewer points (106.2) than the Heat (110.4). This suggests a tighter game with a lower point differential, increasing the likelihood of the Raptors covering a 6 point spread. Additionally, the Raptors' scoring ability on the road (110.6) is relatively close to the Heat's scoring at home (123.4), further supporting the potential for a close game. Thus, the data strongly supports a bet on the Raptors to cover the spread.

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks : Dallas Mavericks Under 130.5 Team Total Points (-500)

The statistical data supports a bet on 'Dallas Mavericks Under 130.5' for several reasons. First, the Mavericks' recent performance doesn't predict a high-scoring game, with their overall last-five-game record standing at 1-4. Furthermore, they've averaged 118.2 points in their last five away games, which is significantly below the 130.5 point threshold. Additionally, the model prediction stands at 111.31, well under the 130.5 mark, suggesting that the Mavericks are unlikely to achieve a high score in their game against the Utah Jazz. The implied probability of 83.3% further bolsters this prediction. Lastly, the Mavericks' last five games against opponents have resulted in an average team score of 120.8, still below the 130.5 point mark. All these factors make a strong case for betting under 130.5 on the Mavericks.