Jordan Whittington (LA) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Jordan Whittington's underperformance in recent games provides a strong rationale for betting Under 15.5 in the 'player_reception_yds' market. Whittington's hit rate has been quite low, both overall and in specific contexts. His overall hit rate in the last 20 games is just 1/11, and his home hit rate is only slightly better at 1/6. Moreover, when playing against the San Francisco 49ers, Whittington's hit rate has been zero, regardless of whether the game was at home or away. His current hit streak is also zero in all contexts, suggesting a consistent underperformance. Given these statistics, the probability of Whittington exceeding 15.5 reception yards is low. The model edge, a measure of the discrepancy between the market odds and the model's estimated probability, also supports this bet, albeit with a rather small edge of 0.0665.
Jordan Whittington (LA) Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The betting rationale for Jordan Whittington to go under 15.5 reception yards in the game between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers is rooted in his recent performance and trends. Whittington has an overall hit rate of just 1/11, indicating that he has only surpassed 15.5 reception yards once in his last 11 games. His hit rate at home is slightly better at 1/6, but still falls short of the mark. Moreover, when playing against the 49ers, he has never exceeded 15.5 yards, and this remains true for home games against the 49ers as well. Additionally, his current hit streak in all categories is zero, suggesting a lack of momentum. Thus, based on his previous performance and current form, it seems statistically probable that Whittington will finish under 15.5 reception yards.
Tutu Atwell (LA) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+162)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Tutu Atwell has shown strong performance at home, hitting over 14.5 receiving yards in 7 out of his last 10 home games. Furthermore, when playing against the San Francisco 49ers at home, his hit rate is a perfect 2 out of 2. This suggests a favorable trend when Atwell plays at home and against this particular opponent. Despite a recent dip in form with no successful over 14.5 yards bets in his last 5 games, Atwell’s overall home hit rate (14 out of 22 games) and overall hit rate (27 out of 47 games) indicate a propensity for him to exceed this mark. Additionally, his current hit streak of 2 consecutive games over 14.5 receiving yards against San Francisco at home adds to the statistical likelihood of this bet hitting. Therefore, betting over 14.5 yards for Atwell seems a statistically sound choice.
Kyren Williams (LA) Over 14.5 Player reception yds alternate (+158)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The main advantage for betting on Kyren Williams to go over 14.5 yards in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market lies in his strong performance specifically against the San Francisco 49ers and at home. While his overall and recent hit rates are relatively low, his record improves significantly when playing against the 49ers and even more when playing them at home. Williams has hit the over 2/3 times against the 49ers and 100% of the time when playing them at home, both in the last 3 and last 5 games. The model edge, though small, also favors the over. It's important to note that this bet relies heavily on the specific matchup and location, as Williams' performance in other scenarios has been less consistent. However, if his specific trends against the 49ers at home continue, this bet could be profitable.
Tutu Atwell (LA) Over 9.5 Player reception yds alternate (+100)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
Betting on Tutu Atwell for Over 9.5 in the 'player_reception_yds_alternate' market for the Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers game has a strong statistical rationale. The most compelling reason is Atwell's performance at home against the 49ers, where he has a 100% hit rate in his last two and last five matchups. This is significantly higher than his overall hit rate (68%) and home hit rate (68%). Although his recent performance has been lackluster, with zero hits in his last 3 and 5 overall games, Atwell's historical performance at home and specifically against the 49ers, indicates a high probability of success. His overall home hit rate in the last 10 and 20 games (70% and 70% respectively) also supports this. The model edge of about 0.024, while modest, does lean in favor of this bet. Therefore, the data suggests that Atwell is
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers : NA -8.5 Point Spread (-110)
Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing
Looking at the data, the Los Angeles Rams have a strong chance of covering a -8.5 spread. The Rams have an overall higher scoring rate (24.4 vs 20.8) and a lower score against rate (21.8 vs 24.4) compared to the opposing team in the last 5 games. This has resulted in a positive point differential for the Rams, while the oppossing team has a negative point differential. Furthermore, the Rams have a positive turnover differential, which indicates they are more likely to take advantage of mistakes made by the opposing team. The Rams also have a stronger home record (4-1) compared to the opposing team's away record (2-3), indicating that they play well at home. Lastly, the Rams have a strong passing expected points added (EPA) for, which suggests they are efficient at gaining yards through passing. Therefore, the data suggests a bet on the Los Angeles Rams -8.5 in the spreads
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