Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Over 5.5 alternate_team_totals (+180)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Detroit Tigers Over 5.5' for the Team Total Runs (Alternate) market is a calculated risk based on the Tigers' recent offensive performance and the Pirates' defensive weaknesses. The Tigers have been consistently hitting an average of 7 bats at home, indicating a strong offensive performance. While their average runs scored at home is 2.8, the model prediction of 5.77 suggests an upcoming surge in scoring. On the other hand, the Pirates have been allowing an average of 3.6 runs in their last five away games, which is higher than the Tigers' average runs scored. Furthermore, the Pirates' pitchers have been averaging 3 bases on balls in their away games, which could provide additional scoring opportunities for the Tigers. Therefore, the bet on 'Detroit Tigers Over 5.5' is a rational choice based on these statistics.

Detroit Tigers vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Over 5.5 alternate_team_totals (+170)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Detroit Tigers Over 5.5' is a favourable choice considering the recent performance data. Although the Tigers' average runs scored in their last five games is lower than the line, their average batting hits are a promising seven, indicating potential for higher scoring. Furthermore, the Pirates have shown vulnerabilities in their pitching, with an average of 2.4-3 bases on balls in their last five games, indicating the Tigers may have more scoring opportunities. Moreover, the Pirates have been allowing an average of 3.6-3.8 runs in their recent games. The model prediction also supports this bet with a figure of 5.77, suggesting a higher likelihood of the Tigers scoring over 5.5 runs. Therefore, the combination of Tigers' batting strength and Pirates' pitching weaknesses make this bet a plausible choice.

Andrew Heaney (PIT) Over 0.5 Walks Allowed (-714)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Andrew Heaney's performance data suggest a strong likelihood of him allowing over 0.5 walks in the upcoming game. His last five games have seen an average of 1.2 walks allowed overall and 1 walk when playing away. Significantly, against the Detroit Tigers, his walks allowed average increases to 3. Despite pitching fewer innings away (5 on average), he's still likely to allow a walk given these stats. Furthermore, Heaney’s current hit streaks, both overall and away, indicate a consistent performance that aligns with these averages. Therefore, betting on Heaney to allow over 0.5 walks is statistically grounded.

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