Moneyline betting means you pick who wins. No points, no totals. The favorite has a minus sign, like -150: you bet $150 to win $100. The underdog has a plus sign, like +130: you bet $100 to win $130. If your pick wins, you get your stake back plus the win. If it loses, you lose the stake.
Understanding Odds: Favorites vs Underdogs
Sportsbooks use American Odds to tell you two things: who they think will win, and what the payout is.
The +/- symbols are the key.
INTERPRETING THE SIGNS
- Minus (-) The Favorite: The number indicates how much you must bet to win $100.
Example: -150 means bet $150 to win $100.
- Plus (+) The Underdog: The number indicates how much you will win on a $100 bet.
Example: +130 means bet $100 to win $130.
Calculating Payouts
You don't have to bet exactly $100. The odds are just a ratio.
REAL WORLD MATH
Scenario A (Favorite): You bet $50 on the Chiefs at -200.
Profit = $50 / (200/100) = $25.00
Total Return = $75.00
Scenario B (Underdog): You bet $50 on the Lions at +150.
Profit = $50 * (150/100) = $75.00
Total Return = $125.00
Implied Probability: The Most Important Concept
Elite bettors don't just look at payouts; they look at Implied Probability. This is the percentage chance of winning that the odds imply.
If you believe a team has a higher chance of winning than the implied probability, that bet has value: the price pays more than the real chance deserves.
THE FORMULAS
Negative Odds (-): Odds / (Odds + 100) * 100
-200 Implied Prob: 200 / (200+100) = 66.7%
Positive Odds (+): 100 / (Odds + 100) * 100
+150 Implied Prob: 100 / (150+100) = 40.0%
When to Use Moneyline Bets
Moneyline bets are best used in specific scenarios rather than blindly betting favorites.
- Underdog Value: When data suggests an underdog has a realistic shot, the payout can be much bigger than a spread bet.
- Low Spreads: If a spread is -1.5 or -2.5, paying the slight premium for the Moneyline eliminates the risk of a close win that doesn't cover.
- Parlays: Combining heavy moneyline favorites is a popular (though risky) strategy to improve odds.
How Bet Better helps: our actuarial models estimate each team’s chance of winning from data and compare it with the price.
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a moneyline bet include overtime?
Yes. In the NFL, NBA, and MLB, your team just needs to win, regardless of whether it takes overtime or extra innings. Note: In Soccer, the standard moneyline is a "3-Way" bet (Win/Draw/Loss) and is graded after 90 minutes + injury time (no extra time).
What is a "Push" in moneyline betting?
A push is a tie. If an NFL game ends in a draw after overtime, moneyline bets are refunded. This is rare in sports other than Soccer.
Why is the favorite "minus" money?
The minus sign creates a barrier to entry. Because the team is expected to win, the sportsbook requires you to risk more money to make a profit, balancing their own risk.