Winning long term is not about being right every time. It is about consistently taking prices that are better than the true probability.
That is what betting value means, and it is the foundation behind every serious betting model.
Answer first
Betting value (positive expected value, +EV) exists when your estimated probability of an outcome is higher than the implied probability from the bookmaker odds.
If your model says an event wins 45% of the time and the market prices it like 40%, you have a mathematical edge.
1. What betting value is
A sportsbook price is a probability estimate, plus margin. If the price implies a lower probability than reality,
that bet has value. Over a large sample, value is what separates investing from guessing.
Not value
You bet because you think a team is “better”, without checking if the odds already reflect that.
Value
You bet because the price is misaligned to probability. You would take the bet at scale.
2. Implied probability, quick formulas
Converting odds into probability is step one. For decimal odds, the formula is:
implied = 1 / decimal_odds
Example
Decimal odds 2.50 implies 1 / 2.50 = 0.40, or 40%.
If your estimated probability is 45%, the wager can be value.
3. Expected value, what +EV actually means
Expected value combines probability and payout. A simplified view for a single bet:
EV = (p_win × profit_if_win) − (p_lose × stake)
You can lose a +EV bet today and still be making the correct decision. Variance is normal.
What matters is whether your decisions have positive expectation across hundreds or thousands of bets.
4. How Bet Better finds value
Bet Better estimates true probability using modeling, then compares it to market prices.
Where the gap is meaningful, the bet is flagged as potential value.
5. Common mistakes
- Chasing winners: A high win rate does not matter if you are consistently paying bad prices.
- Ignoring vig: The market probability includes margin, you must think in terms of fair probability.
- Small samples: Short runs tell you very little. Value is a long game.
- No staking plan: Even with value, poor bankroll management can wipe you out.
FAQ
How do I know if my probability is accurate?
Validate your estimates with out of sample testing and disciplined backtesting. If the process is not robust, the “edge” can be an illusion.
Is +EV the same as guaranteed profit?
No. It means the decision is mathematically favorable over time, not that you win every individual bet.