Best NBA Parlay Picks Today, Sunday 03/22 (7-Leg) : Beat the Books

As the Utah Jazz prepare to face off against the Philadelphia 76ers, all eyes will be on Ace Bailey. However, betting on him to score over 27.5 points feels like a gamble you might want to avoid. Bailey's recent performance shows a notable trend; in his last 20 games, he's hit the under 18 times, and if we narrow it down to home games, that number jumps to an incredible 19 out of 20. The Jazz's offensive scheme, while dynamic, often spreads the wealth, limiting Bailey's ability to dominate the scoring. With an expected stat value of just 15.14 points, it's clear that the numbers don't lean in his favor. The 76ers' defense will also be locked in, making it even tougher for him to find his rhythm. With an implied probability of 77.5% supporting the under, this feels like a smart play. Trust the trends-taking the under on Bailey is where the

Ace Bailey (Utah Jazz) Under 29.5 Points + Assists (-323)

As the Utah Jazz prepare to face the Philadelphia 76ers, all eyes will be on Ace Bailey. While he's shown flashes of brilliance, we're looking at the under on his combined points and assists for this matchup. Why? Bailey has been stellar lately, but let's remember the numbers-he's hit this under in 19 of his last 20 home games, demonstrating a consistent trend that suggests he thrives in a more controlled role at home. The Jazz's recent offensive flow has leaned towards spreading the ball, averaging just around 16.47 expected contributions from Bailey. With the 76ers' strong defensive game plan likely aimed at limiting his impact, it's tough to envision him surpassing 29.5 combined points and assists. Given the implied probability of 76.3% for this outcome, the under starts to look not just appealing, but downright smart in this matchup.

Peyton Watson (Denver Nuggets) Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds (-128)

In the upcoming matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers, targeting Peyton Watson for over 10.5 points and rebounds feels like a smart play. Playing at home, Watson has been an absolute force, averaging 20 points and 3.8 rebounds in his last five games at Ball Arena. More impressively, he's been on fire against the Blazers, racking up 13 points and 5.5 rebounds per game in their recent face-offs at home. With a flawless hit rate of 20 for 20 overall and the same perfect streak in his last 11 home games, the trends are overwhelmingly favorable. Plus, he's not just scoring-his expected stat value sits at a robust 24.58, which suggests he's well-equipped to surpass our mark. Given all these factors, backing Watson to deliver over 10.5 feels less like a gamble and more like a smart investment.

Oso Ighodaro (Phoenix Suns) Under 10.5 Rebounds (-667)

As the Phoenix Suns gear up to host the Milwaukee Bucks, all eyes will be on Oso Ighodaro's rebounding prowess. While he's shown flashes of potential, the data suggests a compelling case for the under on his rebounds at 10.5. In his last nine games, he's consistently failed to hit that mark, finishing under in each one - a perfect 9-for-9. And at home, he's even more subdued, with a flawless 6-for-6 streak of staying under this threshold.Looking deeper, Ighodaro's expected stat value hovers around 5.68 rebounds, suggesting a significant gap between his performance and this line. With the Bucks likely focusing their efforts on controlling the boards against a formidable Suns squad, it's tough to see Ighodaro breaking through. The implied probability of 87% reinforces the notion that he'll likely fall short of that 10.5 mark. This one feels like a solid play for

Ace Bailey (Utah Jazz) Under 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-333)

As the Utah Jazz prepare to take on the Philadelphia 76ers, all eyes will be on Ace Bailey. While he's been a rising star, I'm leaning toward the under on his combined points, rebounds, and assists, set at 35.5. Why? Well, Bailey has been on fire lately, but a closer look reveals he's hit the under in 19 of his last 20 games at home. This isn't a fluke; it's a pattern that suggests he can thrive without carrying the load. The Jazz have a balanced offensive attack, meaning Bailey's contributions might be spread out. Moreover, the matchup against the 76ers, known for their defensive prowess, could further restrict his production. With an expected stat value of just 20.6, the under seems not only plausible but likely. Given the data, this is a savvy play as Bailey's numbers could dip against a tough Philly defense.

Rasheer Fleming (Phoenix Suns) Under 2.5 Threes Made (-455)

As the Phoenix Suns gear up to face the Milwaukee Bucks, Rasheer Fleming presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors looking at his three-point performance. Despite his recent success, connecting on over 90% of his attempts at home in the last 20 games, the numbers tell a different story about his night ahead. With an expected stat value hovering around 0.63 threes made, we're leaning towards the under on 2.5. Fleming's home court advantage might seem compelling, but the Bucks are notorious for their stingy perimeter defense, effectively limiting sharpshooters to underwhelming performances. Furthermore, while he's hit this mark consistently lately, the odds are indicating a substantial regression. At an implied probability of 82%, it's wise to follow the trends and back Fleming to stay under the 2.5 threshold. In a matchup where every possession counts, expect him to focus more on facilitating than firing away from deep.