Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies Prediction & Picks : Stat-Based Insights

Ben Keays is a solid bet to score anytime against Collingwood. With a model prediction of 1.2 goals, above his L5 average of 1.2 goals, and a decent goal accuracy of 36.6%, he's been consistent in finding the big sticks. Keays also averages 3.2 shots at goal, 0.8 marks inside 50, and 7.2 score involvements in his last 5 home games. Facing an opponent where he has previously notched goals, his recent form, including 1.4 goals on average in his last 5 games overall, supports his scoring potential. The model's edge of 3.5% further strengthens the confidence in this bet, making Keays a prime candidate to snag a goal at home.

Reilly O'Brien (Adelaide Crows) Over 9.5 Disposals (-244)

Reilly O'Brien is poised to shine in this matchup against Collingwood at Adelaide Oval. With a model predicting him to collect 12.8 disposals, a 3.3% edge is identified in favor of him surpassing the 9.5 disposals line set by sportsbet. His recent form, averaging 10.8 disposals in the last 5 home games, underpins this bet. Additionally, O'Brien's consistency is evident with a hit rate of 4 out of 5 home games exceeding the 9.5 mark. Facing an opponent he typically performs well against, averaging 10.3 disposals in the last 5 encounters with Collingwood, further strengthens the rationale for placing this bet on O'Brien to surpass 9.5 disposals in this game.

Josh Daicos (Collingwood) Over 19.5 Disposals (-588)

Josh Daicos is poised to shine in this match based on his consistent performance. With a solid model prediction of 25.4 disposals and a 2.5% edge, his recent stats support this bet. Averaging 25.6 disposals in his last five away games and facing an opponent where he averages 24.7 disposals, Daicos is set to surpass the 19.5 line. His high disposals efficiency of 77.6% and ability to gain meters effectively further strengthen this pick. Daicos' reliable track record, including hitting 16 out of his last 18 away game bets, and an impressive 12 out of 14 overall, make him a strong contender to meet or exceed the disposals line in this away game against Adelaide Crows.

Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies : Adelaide Crows -8.5 (-110)

The bet on Adelaide Crows -8.5 is supported by their strong recent form at home, averaging a margin of 36 points and scoring an average of 95.4 points in their last five home games. Collingwood Magpies, on the other hand, have struggled away, with an average margin of only 3.8 points and scoring 72.6 points per game. Adelaide's ability to generate inside 50s and shots on goal, coupled with their effective conversion rate, should help them cover the spread against Collingwood's weaker defensive record on the road. The model's slight edge in favor of Adelaide, despite a wider standard deviation, aligns with the statistical advantage the Crows hold in this matchup, making them a favorable pick to cover the spread.

Nick Daicos (Collingwood) Over 24.5 Disposals (-400)

Nick Daicos is poised to shine against the Adelaide Crows based on his recent stellar form. With a solid L5 average of 31.4 disposals in away games and an impressive L5 vs. opponent average of 32 disposals, Daicos is consistently impactful. His L5 stats, including a high disposalefficiency of 70.8% and significant metres gained at 586.4, indicate his ability to control possession effectively. Additionally, with a strong hit rate of 9/10 in his last 10 games, Daicos is in a groove. The model's prediction of 28.9 disposals aligns well with his recent performance, suggesting he is likely to surpass the 24.5 line comfortably. This bet on Nick Daicos to go over 24.5 disposals is well-supported by his consistent output and favorable matchup dynamics.