Villarreal vs Mallorca: Mallorca +4.5 Goal Handicap (-5000)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on 'Mallorca 4.5' is a solid choice given the recent performance of both teams. Villarreal's home record is inconsistent with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games. Despite a higher average of shots on target (4.6 vs 2.8), they only average 1 goal per game, similar to Mallorca. Mallorca's away record is poor, but they've maintained a steady average of 1 goal per game. Additionally, Mallorca's expected goals (xG) is 1.46, close to Villarreal's 1.5, indicating a similar potential for scoring. Given Mallorca's 4.5 handicap, they only need to avoid a heavy defeat, which seems plausible considering Villarreal's average scoring rate. This, combined with Mallorca's consistent scoring, makes the 'Mallorca 4.5' bet a good choice.
Villarreal vs Mallorca: Draw Moneyline (+390)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on a 'Draw' for the Villarreal vs Mallorca game is statistically justified based on several key data points. Firstly, both teams have shown similar scoring patterns in their last 5 games, with an average team score of 1. This indicates a balanced offensive strength. Secondly, the home team's record against the opponent is 3-1-1, with one draw, and the away team's record is 1-1-3, with one win and three draws. This suggests a tendency towards stalemates in their encounters. Lastly, the away team's score average drops significantly (from 1 to 0.4) when playing away, while the home team's opponent score at home remains at 1. This implies that Villarreal may struggle to secure a win. Together, these factors make a draw a plausible outcome.
Villarreal vs Mallorca: Draw Moneyline (+390)
Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing
The bet on 'Draw' for the Villarreal vs Mallorca game is based on the similar performance of both teams. Both teams have an average score of 1 in their last 5 games, implying they are evenly matched in terms of scoring. Moreover, the home team's record against Mallorca is not dominant (3-1-1), suggesting that Mallorca can hold their own against Villarreal. Additionally, Villarreal's home record (2-2-1) and Mallorca's away record (0-2-3) indicate that both teams have had a number of draws recently. Lastly, the xG (expected goals) averages for both teams are quite close (Villarreal 1.5, Mallorca 1.46), further indicating a likely draw. These stats collectively suggest a high probability of a draw outcome.
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