Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Wednesday 03/11 (Amen Thompson Highlights): Best Value Bets

As the Cleveland Cavaliers roll into Orlando, all eyes will be on Donovan Mitchell's scoring, but the under on his points might just be the smarter play. Sure, he's been lighting it up recently, averaging 34.2 points over his last five games, but there's a catch when he's on the road. His away game average dips to just 19.4 points, and against the Magic, he's clocked in at 23.4 points over their last five matchups. Moreover, the stats suggest a transition from dominance to adjustment, as Mitchell has hit the under in 9 of his last 10 away games. With an expected stat value of 24.93, it seems like the Magic's defense could contain him just enough to keep him under that 28.5 mark. Betting the under feels like a savvy move here-his scoring prowess might take a back seat tonight.

Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-130)

As Sam Merrill steps onto the court against the Orlando Magic, the odds suggest a quiet evening for the Cavaliers' guard. Averaging just 6.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.6 assists over his last five games, Merrill is struggling to find a rhythm. When playing away, his numbers dip even further-he's only managing 3.6 points and 2.8 rebounds, with assists dropping to a mere 1. Against the Magic, his historical performance tells a similar story, averaging just 4.8 points in their previous matchups, and even lower on the road. With an expected stat value of 11.32, it's hard to envision him surpassing the 15.5 mark. Plus, with a hit rate of 9 out of 10 games overall and 7 for 7 away, backing the under feels like a savvy move. In this matchup, Merrill looks poised for another subdued outing.

Miles Bridges (Charlotte Hornets) Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-125)

As the Charlotte Hornets roll into Sacramento, keep a close eye on Miles Bridges. This is a player who thrives in an away setting, averaging an impressive 22.8 points and 6 rebounds over his last five games on the road. Against the Kings, he's consistently found his rhythm, pouring in an average of 25 points per game in their recent matchups. With his overall hit rate climbing to 11 out of 14 in the last stretch, it's clear he's been a reliable performer. With Bridges' ability to turn it up a notch away from home, the 20.5 mark for points and rebounds feels well within reach. His recent form suggests he can easily eclipse that threshold, especially when you consider Sacramento's defensive vulnerabilities. Expect him to step up and deliver a strong performance, making the over a smart play here.

Ja'Kobe Walter (Toronto Raptors) Over 6.5 Points (-135)

When it comes to Ja'Kobe Walter, the numbers speak volumes, and Thursday's matchup against the Toronto Raptors sets the stage for another standout performance. Averaging 12.6 points over his last five games, he's been a consistent scoring threat, and even more impressive, he's posted an average of 14 points against the Raptors in their recent encounters. Playing away in Toronto doesn't seem to faze him either; his last five road games show an impressive 11.2 points per game. With a perfect 6-for-6 hit rate in his last outings and a striking 5-for-5 away from home, it's clear that Walter thrives under pressure. The Pelicans will need him to step up, and with a projected stat value of nearly 10 points, taking the over on 6.5 feels like a smart play. Expect him to deliver yet again and light up the scoreboard.

Keon Ellis (Sacramento Kings) Over 5.5 Points (-130)

As we look ahead to the matchup between the Orlando Magic and the Cleveland Cavaliers, Keon Ellis is poised for a breakout moment. With an average of 5.4 points over the last five games, he's been just shy of the mark, but don't let that fool you. His performance against the Cavs has been notably more explosive, averaging 10.3 points in their last five encounters. Ellis thrives in high-pressure situations, evidenced by his incredible hit rate-he's connected on over 75% of his point totals in both home and away games over the last 20 outings. The Cavaliers' defense has struggled against guards, allowing an average of 9.5 points when on the road, which bodes well for Ellis. Given his expected stat value of 8.46 and an implied probability of hitting that over at 56.5%, betting on Ellis to score over 5.5 points feels like a savvy play.