Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Thursday 03/12 (Amen Thompson Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

When it comes to Donovan Mitchell, it's hard to overlook his scoring prowess, especially after averaging a whopping 34.2 points over his last five games. Yet, this matchup against the Orlando Magic presents a compelling case for an under bet on his point total, set at 28.5. Historically, when playing away, Mitchell has been less explosive, averaging just 19.4 points in his last five road games. Facing Orlando, a team that's shown defensive grit, Mitchell's scoring dips further; he's only managed an average of 23.4 points against them on their court. Combine that with a solid hit rate of 9-out-of-10 for hitting the under in away games and an expected stat value of just 24.93, and the writing's on the wall. This game might just see Mitchell curtail his scoring, making the under a smart play to consider.

Ja'Kobe Walter (Toronto Raptors) Over 6.5 Points (-135)

As the Pelicans gear up to face the Raptors, Ja'Kobe Walter is primed for a standout performance. With an impressive average of 12.6 points over his last five games, he's consistently found the basket. Even more compelling is his away game form, where he's racked up 11.2 points per game and has hit this over in all five of his most recent road outings. Against Toronto, Walter has also shown he can rise to the occasion, averaging 14 points in their last five meetings. With a perfect hit rate in his last six games, including 100% on the road, it feels like the stars are aligning for him to exceed that modest 6.5-point mark. The Raptors will have their hands full, and Walter's momentum could make this bet one to jump on. Expect him to not just meet but surpass expectations on Thursday night.

Desmond Bane (Memphis Grizzlies) Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists (-120)

As we gear up for the Orlando Magic versus Cleveland Cavaliers clash, Desmond Bane is a player to keep an eye on for his combined rebounds and assists. With a prop set at 8.5, the numbers are strongly in his favor. Over the last five games, Bane has been averaging 6.6 rebounds and 3.4 assists, giving him a solid average of just over 10 when we combine the two. What's even more compelling is his recent form; he's hit the over in all three of his last outings. Against the Cavaliers, he's also shown he can step up, averaging 6 rebounds and 3 assists in their previous encounters. With the Cavs allowing an average of 7 rebounds and 2 assists to opposing guards at home, Bane seems poised to capitalize. Given his impressive 13 out of 17 hit rate over the last 17 games, it's hard not to see this as a favorable matchup for him to exceed

Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 32.5 Points + Rebounds (-128)

When looking at Donovan Mitchell's performance, particularly in away games, the numbers tell a compelling story that leans towards the Under 32.5 points plus rebounds. While he's been electric at home, averaging 34.2 points and 5.8 rebounds in his last five outings, his away stats drop significantly, with just 19.4 points and a mere 3.2 rebounds in the last five. Against the Orlando Magic, he's averaged just 23.4 points and 3.2 rebounds on the road. This matchup poses a unique challenge; the Magic's defense is solid and has stymied scorers effectively. With a hit rate of 8 out of his last 9 away games falling under this threshold, it's hard to ignore the trend. Expect Mitchell to face tough coverage, making the Under a smart play in this contest.

Keon Ellis (Sacramento Kings) Over 5.5 Points (-133)

As the Orlando Magic gear up to face the Cleveland Cavaliers, all eyes should be on Keon Ellis. With a points prop set at a tantalizing 5.5, this feels like a prime opportunity to capitalize on his current form. Over the last five games, he's averaged 5.4 points, but when playing at home, that number bumps up to 7.6, signaling a comfort level in front of the home crowd.What's particularly striking is his recent performance against the Cavaliers, where he's managed to light up the scoreboard for an impressive 10.3 points on average. The numbers don't lie; he's hit the over in a staggering 15 out of his last 20 games. With the Cavaliers struggling to contain perimeter shooters lately, Ellis could be in for a breakout night. Betting on him to go over 5.5 points appears not just reasonable, but downright enticing.