Amen Thompson (Houston Rockets) Under 5.5 Assists (-172)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Houston Rockets gear up to face the formidable Denver Nuggets, Amen Thompson's assist tally is under the microscope. Sitting at 5.5, going under seems like a savvy play. Over his last five games, Thompson has averaged just 2.8 assists overall, and when he's on the road, that number creeps up to 3.8. However, here's the kicker: against Denver, he's recorded a staggering zero assists in their last five encounters, even less so when playing away.The Nuggets' defense has a knack for stifling playmakers, which could leave Thompson struggling to find his rhythm. With a hit rate of 6/6 on the under recently, and a robust 63.3% implied probability backing this bet, it feels like a smart move to target Thompson's assists. Expect a night where he might be more of a spectator than a distributor on the court.

Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 28.5 Points (-135)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Donovan Mitchell's scoring prowess is hard to ignore, especially given his recent average of 34.2 points over the last five games. However, as the Cavaliers head to Orlando, a closer look reveals a different story for Mitchell on the road. His average drops to 19.4 points in away games, and against the Magic, he's managed just 23.4 points in their last matchups. Considering he's hit the under in 9 of his last 10 away games, the trend is hard to overlook. With the Magic's defense, which has tightened up lately, Mitchell may find it tougher to hit that 28.5 mark. The implied probability of 57.5% suggests that this under is a solid play, especially when factoring in that Mitchell's expected stat value hovers around 24.93. It seems like a perfect storm for Mitchell to fall short of that lofty number tonight.

Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Cavaliers head to Orlando, it's worth keeping an eye on Sam Merrill's performance, particularly with a points, rebounds, and assists total set at 15.5. The data tells a compelling story: Merrill has averaged just 6.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.6 assists over the last five games. When you zoom in on his away performances, those numbers dip even further-3.6 points and 1 assist. Against the Magic, he's only managed 4.8 points per game historically, which is less than half of what we need to hit the over. With a hit rate of 9 out of his last 10 games going under this line and a perfect 7 for 7 on the road, it feels like a strong play to lean into the under here. Merrill just isn't finding his rhythm away from home, making the under 15.5 a savvy move.

Ja'Kobe Walter (Toronto Raptors) Over 6.5 Points (-135)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In Thursday's matchup between the Pelicans and Raptors, keep your eyes on Ja'Kobe Walter to drop over 6.5 points. Walter has been on a scoring tear, averaging 12.6 points across his last five games and even more impressive, 11.2 points when on the road. Against the Raptors specifically, he's been lethal, posting an average of 14 points in their recent encounters, showing he's more than capable of stepping up in a tough environment.What's particularly compelling is his perfect streak-Walter has hit the over in all six of his last games, and even better, he hasn't missed in his last five as an away player. With an expected stat value close to 10 points, this feels like a calculated bet. As the Pelicans look to secure a vital win, Walter's offensive contributions will be crucial, making this wager a smart move for your betting card.

Keon Ellis (Sacramento Kings) Over 5.5 Points (-130)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

When you look at Keon Ellis's recent performance, the case for betting the over on his points is compelling. Averaging a solid 5.4 points over his last five games, Ellis has shown a bit more of a spark at home, bumping that average up to 7.6. But here's where it gets really interesting: when facing the Cavaliers, he's averaged 10.3 points in their last five meetings. The Cavaliers' defense, especially on the road, has allowed an average of 9.5 points to opponents, which bodes well for Ellis. With a remarkable hit rate of 15 out of 20 games over the last stretch, it's clear that he's finding his rhythm. Given that his expected stat value sits at 8.46, taking the over on 5.5 feels almost like a no-brainer. With the Magic needing every point they can get, look for Ellis to rise to the occasion.

Cody Williams (Utah Jazz) Under 2.5 Assists (-189)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Cody Williams is stepping onto the court for the Utah Jazz, but betting on him to rack up assists could be a risky move. Over his last five games, he's averaged just 1 assist, and at home, that number dips to a mere 0.8. Even more telling is his performance against the New York Knicks; he hasn't logged a single assist in their last encounters, both on the road and at home. With the pressure of the game, it's unlikely he'll break through this trend against a Knicks defense that's difficult to crack. The odds suggest a strong likelihood-65.4%-that he won't hit the 2.5 mark, especially considering he hasn't just struggled recently but has maintained an impressive streak of going under in his last 11 games. With these numbers in mind, the under on Williams' assists feels like a savvy bet.

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