Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 03/15 (Kawhi Leonard Highlights): Smart Player Wagers

As the Cleveland Cavaliers gear up to face the Dallas Mavericks, all eyes will be on Donovan Mitchell. While he's been a scoring machine lately, averaging over 34 points in his last five games, the matchup suggests a different narrative. Mitchell's production against the Mavericks has historically been solid but not overwhelming, averaging around 23.4 points in their recent encounters. What's more, his assist numbers aren't as high as you'd hope; he typically dishes out about five assists against Dallas but has recently seen a dip in his overall contributions at home. With the expected stat value hovering around 29.6, the under 32.5 on points plus assists feels like a smart play. The Cavaliers are likely to rely on a balanced attack, which could limit Mitchell's opportunities for that big combined total. With a solid hit rate of 11 out of 18 on this line, fading him seems prudent in this matchup.

Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 19.5 Points (-132)

Tonight, as the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Dallas Mavericks, the spotlight turns to Evan Mobley. While he's shown flashes of brilliance, let's keep it real: hitting the over on 19.5 points against this Mavericks squad seems like a tall order. Over his last five games, Mobley has averaged only 17.8 points, with a slight uptick at home to 18.8. However, against Dallas specifically, he's averaged just 17 points in their last matchups in Cleveland.Moreover, his current trend shows a hit rate of just 67% on going over this line in his last 12 games, which is telling. With an expected stat value of 16.38, it seems the odds are stacked against him tonight. A mix of defensive pressure from Dallas and Mobley's own recent scoring struggles suggest that taking the under on his points tonight could be a savvy play.

Bennedict Mathurin (Indiana Pacers) Under 2.5 Assists (-175)

When you look at Bennedict Mathurin's recent performances, it becomes clear that the under on his assists is a savvy play. Over his last five games, he's averaged just 1.2 assists, and even when you shift the focus to home games, that number only inches up to 1.4. Facing off against the Kings, where he's averaged 1.6 assists in their last matchups, you might expect more, but the trends tell a different story.The Kings have been tough on playmakers, allowing only 2 assists per game to opposing guards at home in their last 11 outings. With Mathurin's hit rate for under 2.5 assists soaring at 19 out of 20 times recently, it's hard to ignore this pattern. This game presents an ideal scenario to capitalize on a number that feels too high given the data. Target the under on Mathurin's assists and let the numbers guide you to a winning bet.

Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons) Over 34.5 Points + Assists (-116)

Cade Cunningham is primed for a standout performance in Toronto this Sunday as he faces off against the Raptors. Averaging 25.8 points and 8 assists in his last five games, Cunningham's play is heating up, especially on the road where he boosts his scoring to 27.6 points and maintains 8 assists. Against the Raptors, he's been particularly effective, racking up an average of 20.8 points and 9.8 assists in their recent matchups. Even away from home, he has a solid hit rate, with 14 of his last 20 trips surpassing the 34.5 mark for points plus assists. With an expected stat value nudging up to 37.01, it's clear that Cunningham's current form and matchup favor a big night. Look for him to capitalize on the Raptors' defense and deliver a performance that comfortably eclipses our target.

Cason Wallace (Oklahoma City Thunder) Under 6.5 Rebounds + Assists (-149)

When the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Minnesota Timberwolves, keep an eye on Cason Wallace's rebounds and assists total, particularly if you're considering the under at 6.5. At home, Wallace averages just 2.2 rebounds and 1 assist in his last five games, which paints a clear picture of his current production levels. Against the Timberwolves, he's not faring much better, pulling down around 3.2 boards and dishing out 4.4 assists at home. However, given his recent form-with averages of 2.6 rebounds and 0.6 assists across his last five-it's evident he's not on track to hit that 6.5 mark. With a solid 10-0 hit rate lately and the numbers aligning, betting the under feels like a smart play here, especially as he'll be facing a Timberwolves team that doesn't particularly amplify his impact.