Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 03/15 (DeMar DeRozan Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

As the Trail Blazers face off against the 76ers, betting on Deni Avdija to stay under 29.5 points and rebounds feels like a strategic play. Despite his recent averages of 27.6 points and 10.8 rebounds over the last five games, the reality of away games paints a different picture for Avdija. On the road, he's been limited to just 22.2 points and 10.4 rebounds, significantly lower than his overall numbers.Digging deeper, against this 76ers team, he averages a mere 12.8 points and 8 rebounds, which drops to 8.6 points and 5.4 rebounds when playing in Philadelphia. With a 10 out of 15 success rate hitting under on the road, it's clear that the home crowd and competitive energy of the 76ers might stifle his production. Given these trends, betting the under seems not just reasonable but wise.

Bennedict Mathurin (Indiana Pacers) Under 7.5 Rebounds + Assists (-135)

As we gear up for a thrilling matchup between the Clippers and Kings, Bennedict Mathurin presents an intriguing player prop to consider. With a combined average of just 6.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists over his last five games, he's been significantly underperforming the 7.5 mark. Even in home and away splits, he only ekes out an average of 7 rebounds and 1.4 assists, which places him below our target. Against the Kings, Mathurin hasn't fared much better, averaging just 4 rebounds and 1.6 assists. The Kings' defense has been solid, holding opponents to similar numbers. With a hit rate of 85% on unders lately, and the implied probability of this bet sitting at 57.5%, it seems the smart money is on the under here. As the game unfolds, expect Mathurin to struggle to clear that 7.5 threshold.

Justin Edwards (Philadelphia 76ers) Over 10.5 Points (-128)

When the Philadelphia 76ers host the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes should be on Justin Edwards to exceed that 10.5 points mark. Edwards has been on fire lately, averaging 17 points in his last five games. He's not just scoring well overall; at home, he's hitting an impressive 11.4 points per game. What stands out is his recent performance against the Blazers, where he averaged 16 points in their last five meetings, including a perfect 3-for-3 at home. With an expected stat value of 13.08, the numbers suggest he's poised to surpass that threshold comfortably. The 76ers will rely on him to step up, and given his current form, it feels like a solid bet that Edwards will light up the scoreboard yet again. Take the over on his points-it's a play backed by consistent performance and a favorable matchup.

Quentin Grimes (Philadelphia 76ers) Under 25.5 Points + Assists (-125)

As the Philadelphia 76ers gear up to host the Portland Trail Blazers, all eyes will be on Quentin Grimes. While he's been solid, the numbers suggest we should lean towards the Under on his combined points and assists, set at 25.5. Grimes has averaged 24.6 points and 5.8 assists over his last five games, but let's dig deeper. At home, his scoring dips to around 21.4 points, and he averages just four assists. Against the Blazers, those numbers shrink even further-he's netted only 11.2 points and 4.6 assists in their recent matchups. With a home hit rate of 13 out of 15, the 76ers might rely on their star scorers, limiting Grimes' opportunities. This matchup hints at a night where he might fall short of that 25.5 mark, making the Under a compelling play for savvy bettors.

Kawhi Leonard (LA Clippers) Over 3.5 Assists (-167)

Kawhi Leonard is primed for a standout performance in the upcoming clash against the Sacramento Kings. With the Clippers at home, there's a real opportunity for him to not just score but orchestrate the offense. Over his last five games, he's averaged 5.2 assists, showcasing his ability to facilitate plays. Against the Kings, who have struggled to defend against playmakers, Kawhi has averaged just under three assists in their recent matchups. However, given his current form and the Clippers' need for ball movement, it's reasonable to think he'll surpass the 3.5 assists mark. In fact, he's hit the over in four of his last six outings, and at home, that rate improves to five out of six. With an expected stat value nudging up to 4.57, betting on Kawhi to deliver more than 3.5 assists makes a lot of sense.