Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Sunday 02/22 (Pelle Larsson Highlights): Stat Projections & Picks

The bet on Mitchell Robinson to go under 16.5 combined points and rebounds is mainly driven by his recent performance. His average combined points and rebounds in the last five overall games is 13.8, which is significantly lower than the target of 16.5. Even when playing at home, Robinson's average combined points and rebounds is 10.8, well below the outcome point. Moreover, his average against the Rockets, the opponent for this game, stands at 13.5, and it drops to 9 when playing at home. Although Robinson has a high hit rate in his last few games, the numbers show that he consistently falls short of the 16.5 mark. Therefore, based on these statistics, it is statistically reasonable to bet on Robinson to stay under 16.5 combined points and rebounds in the upcoming game against the Rockets.

Andrew Wiggins (Golden State Warriors) Under 1.5 Steals (-135)

The under 1.5 steals bet for Andrew Wiggins in the Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies game is statistically supported by several key factors. Firstly, Wiggins' average steals over the last five games overall (0.6) and at home (1.2) are both below the 1.5 threshold. Even his average steals against this specific opponent (1) and at home against this opponent (1.7) show that he is more likely than not to fall under the required 1.5 steals. This is further backed by his expected stat value of 0.89. Finally, the trend of his recent performance as indicated by his overall and home hit rate over the last four games (4/4) suggests a high likelihood of this pattern continuing. All these statistics together make a strong case for betting on Wiggins to have under 1.5 steals in this game.

Josh Hart (New York Knicks) Over 9.5 Points (-130)

Josh Hart's performance metrics indicate a high likelihood of him scoring over 9.5 points in the upcoming game. The statistics show that Hart's average points against the Houston Rockets (the opponent) are higher than the outcome point of 9.5. Specifically, Hart has scored an average of 13.4 points against the Rockets in the last five matches, and 11.8 points when playing at home. His overall hit rate in the last 18 games is 12/18 and 6/9 when he's playing at home. Although his average overall and home points in the last five games are slightly below the targeted outcome point, his performance against this specific opponent and his overall scoring trend suggest a strong possibility of Hart surpassing 9.5 points in the upcoming game.

Matas Buzelis (Chicago Bulls) Under 4.5 Assists (-213)

The statistical data strongly supports a bet for Matas Buzelis to have under 4.5 assists in the upcoming game between the Chicago Bulls and the Detroit Pistons. Buzelis' average assists rate over the last five games, both overall and at home, is significantly lower than the outcome point of 4.5, coming in at 2.4 and 2.6 respectively. Even when facing this specific opponent, his assists average drops further to 0.8 overall and 1 at home. These figures suggest that he rarely exceeds the set outcome point, which is further corroborated by an overall hit rate of 18 out of 20 and a perfect home hit rate over the last three games. Therefore, based on Buzelis' past performance, it is statistically likely that he will not reach 4.5 assists in this game.

Mikal Bridges (Brooklyn Nets) Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-130)

Mikal Bridges' recent performance data supports a bet for Over 23.5 in Points + Rebounds + Assists. In the last five home games, Bridges averaged 18.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists, which totals 27.6, comfortably over the 23.5 threshold. Additionally, when specifically playing against the Rockets at home, his average for the same metrics are 21 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, totaling 29.2, again exceeding the target. The home hit rate for this bet for Bridges is also high, being successful 4 out of the last 5 times. Therefore, the historical data suggests that Bridges' performance at home, and specifically against the Rockets, makes this a strong bet.