Today's AFL Best Bets: Picks, Predictions and Odds for ALL Games on Friday 09/26

The bet on Brisbane Lions +11.5 is supported by their recent performance metrics. Despite Geelong Cats' strong home form, averaging a 45.2 margin in their last 5 home games, Brisbane's away resilience with a narrow 2.6 average margin suggests they can keep this game tighter. Brisbane's ability to limit points against them (67.8) compared to Geelong's average points for (107) indicates a potential to stay within the spread. With Brisbane averaging 84.2 points for and Geelong conceding 72.4 on average at home, Brisbane's capacity to score and keep the game competitive makes the +11.5 line a favorable bet based on recent form and matchup dynamics.

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions : Geelong Cats Win (-167)

The bet on Geelong Cats to win against Brisbane Lions is backed by their dominant recent form at home. Geelong's high average margin of 45.2 points and impressive offensive prowess, averaging 117.6 points scored in their last five home games, indicate a potent attack. In contrast, Brisbane's average margin of 2.6 points in away games suggests vulnerability on the road. Geelong's strong clearance and inside 50 numbers, coupled with their ability to limit turnovers, give them an edge in controlling the game. With a solid defensive record (72.4 points against on average at home) and Brisbane's struggles to score away from home, the data favors Geelong's ability to secure a victory at the MCG.