Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 11.5 Points + Assists (-125)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When it comes to Sam Merrill's performance against the Cleveland Cavaliers, there's compelling evidence pointing to an "under" bet on his combined points and assists, set at 11.5. Merrill has been a bit of a non-factor lately, averaging just 6.8 points and 1.6 assists over his last five games. On the road, those numbers dip even further to 3.6 points and 1 assist. Historically, against the Cavaliers, he's averaged around 10 points and 1 assist per game, and his away stats don't inspire confidence-he's only cracked double digits once in his last seven road outings. With an overall hit rate of 7 out of the last 8 games on this prop, and given that he's been under the threshold in all seven recent away games, it's clear that Merrill's contributions are likely to fall short of 11.5 once again.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers : Milwaukee Bucks 10.5 (-118)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

When you're looking at the Milwaukee Bucks taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers, there's a clear advantage for the home team. The Bucks are a force to be reckoned with, consistently outperforming their competition, and their home court advantage in this matchup can't be ignored. The point spread here is set at 10.5, with the Bucks favored to win. Their track record justifies this, as they frequently best their opponents by wide margins. The model prediction of -7.49 further underscores this, suggesting that the Bucks are likely to win by a comfortable margin. Our model also shows an 11.7% edge for the Bucks, supporting the betting rationale. While the Cavaliers certainly aren't to be underestimated, the Bucks' superior performance and home court advantage make them a solid bet for this point spread.

Kevin Porter Jr. (Milwaukee Bucks) Under 5.5 Rebounds (-172)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Bucks prepare to host the Cavaliers, the spotlight should be on Kevin Porter Jr.'s rebounding numbers. With an average of just 3.6 rebounds over his last five games, it's clear he's been struggling to hit that 5.5 mark. Even more telling is his performance against Cleveland, where he's managed only 2.5 boards in their recent encounters. At home, that number dips to an average of 2, which further illustrates the challenge he faces. Given that Porter has consistently fallen short of this threshold, hitting the "under" in all five of his past home games, we're looking at an implied probability of 63.3% for this bet. With the Bucks well-equipped to dictate the pace and limit his opportunities, betting on Porter to stay under 5.5 rebounds seems like a smart play for this matchup.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Cleveland Cavaliers : Cleveland Cavaliers win (-476)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Taking a look at the imminent clash between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Cleveland Cavaliers, it's clear why our pick is leaning towards the Cavaliers. We're talking about a team that has consistently shown strength and finesse on the court. The Cavaliers have a model prediction of 0.9, a strong indicator of a favourable outcome for them. This, coupled with an implied probability of 82.6%, reiterates their dominance in this matchup. Essentially, the numbers are telling us that the Cavaliers have a high probability of coming out on top, making them a reliable choice for a Moneyline bet. We can't ignore the Bucks' potential; however, based on the Cavaliers' solid record and the available data, they seem to have the upper hand in this NBA showdown.

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