Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Pittsburgh Pirates Win (+180)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on the Pittsburgh Pirates is driven by the model's prediction and the team's recent performance. The model's edge of 5.9% indicates that the Pirates are undervalued in this match-up. Despite the Brewers' strong home record, they have struggled against the Pirates, with a 2-3 record in their last five encounters. The Pirates have also been defensively solid on the road, allowing an average of only 3.6 runs in their last five away games. This is significantly lower than the Brewers' home scoring average of 5.6 runs, suggesting the Pirates' defense could limit the Brewers' scoring. Thus, the combination of the Pirates' recent performance against the Brewers, their strong defense, and the model's edge makes a bet on the Pittsburgh Pirates a good choice.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Pittsburgh Pirates Win (+177)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a solid bet for this game despite being the away team. The Brewers may have a strong home record, but their performance against the Pirates specifically is less impressive, with a 2-3 record in their last five match-ups. Additionally, the Pirates have been successful in limiting runs scored by their opponents, with an average of 3.8 runs allowed overall and 3.6 on the road. This is significantly less than the Brewers' average runs scored at home. The Pirates' ability to suppress runs, combined with their recent success against the Brewers, suggests they have a strong chance of winning. The model prediction and edge also support this, indicating that the Pirates are undervalued in this match-up, making them a smart bet.

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