UFC / MMA model board
Live 12 games · Sat 31 Oct · version 7 of 7 · updated Mon 26 Oct, 12:00 pm ET
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 5:00p | Lucia SzabováatTainara Lisboa | — | — | — | 1.5 | 2.5 | 16% | +515 | -515 |
| Sat 8:00p | Francis MarshallatDakota Hope | — | — | — | 1 | 2.5 | 49% | +104 | -104 |
| Sat 8:00p | Farman HasanovatJean-Paul Lebosnoyani | — | — | — | 1 | 2.5 | 62% | -164 | +164 |
| Sat 8:00p | Nick KleinatJoe Kropschot | — | — | — | 1 | 1.5 | 62% | -166 | +166 |
| Sat 8:00p | JeongYeong LeeatJulian Erosa | — | — | — | 1 | 1.5 | 35% | +183 | -183 |
| Sat 8:00p | Zach ReeseatMickey Gall | — | — | — | 1 | 1.5 | 23% | +329 | -329 |
| Sat 8:00p | Cody DurdenatOde' Osbourne | 6 more games with every column in the feed · choose your leagues | |||||||
| Sat 8:00p | Talita AlencaratPiera Rodriguez | ····· | |||||||
| Sat 8:00p | Jacobe SmithatRandy Brown | ····· | |||||||
| Sat 8:00p | Tom NolanatRenato Moicano | ····· | |||||||
| Sat 8:00p | Rodrigo SezinandoatTheodor Berggren | ····· | |||||||
| Sat 8:00p | Luana SantosatYana Santos | ····· | |||||||
Versions this week
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
| Kick (ET) | Game | Market | Side | Line | Our chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8:00p | Szabová at Lisboa | Total | Over | 2.5 | 50% | -101 |
| Sat 8:00p | Marshall at Hope | Total | Under | 2.5 | 44% | +126 |
| Sat 8:00p | Marshall at Hope | Moneyline | Francis Marshall | — | 51% | -104 |
| Sat 8:00p | Hasanov at Lebosnoyani | Total | Under | 2.5 | 47% | +112 |
| Sat 8:00p | Hasanov at Lebosnoyani | Moneyline | Farman Hasanov | — | 38% | +164 |
| Sat 8:00p | Klein at Kropschot | Total | Under | 1.5 | 46% | +119 |
| Sat 8:00p | Klein at Kropschot | Moneyline | Nick Klein | 13 more main lines and every alternate in the feed · choose your leagues | ||
| Sat 8:00p | Lee at Erosa | Total | Over | ····· | ||
| Sat 8:00p | Reese at Gall | Total | Over | ····· | ||
| Sat 8:00p | Durden at Osbourne | Total | Over | ····· | ||
| Sat 8:00p | Alencar at Rodriguez | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Sat 8:00p | Alencar at Rodriguez | Moneyline | Piera Rodriguez | ····· | ||
| Sat 8:00p | Smith at Brown | Total | Over | ····· | ||
| Sat 8:00p | Smith at Brown | Moneyline | Jacobe Smith | ····· | ||
| Sat 8:00p | Nolan at Moicano | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Sat 8:00p | Nolan at Moicano | Moneyline | Tom Nolan | ····· | ||
| Sat 8:00p | Sezinando at Berggren | Moneyline | Theodor Berggren | ····· | ||
| Sat 8:00p | Santos at Santos | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Sat 8:00p | Santos at Santos | Moneyline | Luana Santos | ····· | ||
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 12:00a | Movsar EvloevatAlexander Volkanovski | — | — | — | 1.5 | 4.5 | — | — | — |
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The combined score we expect. The Market column beside it is the bookmakers' average number when this version went out.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no bookmaker margin (the cut a bookmaker keeps), for both sides.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
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