UFC / MMA model board
Live 13 games · Sat 12 Sep · version 3 of 3 · updated Thu 10 Sep, 1:01 am ET
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 2:10p | Regina TarinatJJ Aldrich | — | — | — | 1 | 2.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 2:30p | Sean KingatJessie Rosas | — | — | — | 1 | 2.5 | 37% | +172 | -172 |
| Sat 3:15p | RongzhuatRafa Garcia | — | — | — | 1 | 2.5 | 47% | +114 | -114 |
| Sat 3:25p | Tommy GanttatDrakkar Klose | — | — | — | 1 | 1.5 | 24% | +322 | -322 |
| Sat 4:15p | Djorden SantosatYousri Belgaroui | — | — | — | 0.5 | 1.5 | 70% | -235 | +235 |
| Sat 4:30p | Ignacio BahamondesatMuslim Salikhov | — | — | — | 0.5 | 1.5 | 29% | +248 | -248 |
| Sat 4:45p | Édgar CháirezatTim Elliott | Numbers in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
| Sat 5:15p | David MartinezatDan Ige | Numbers in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
| Sat 5:45p | Waldo Cortes AcostaatCurtis Blaydes | Numbers in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
| Sat 6:15p | Manon FiorotatAlexa Grasso | Numbers in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
| Sat 6:45p | Marwan RahikiatTommy McMillen | Numbers in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
| Sat 7:15p | Joseph MoralesatBrandon Moreno | Numbers in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
| Sat 7:45p | Jose Miguel DelgadoatJean Silva | Numbers in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
Versions this week
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 8:00p | Nilson RojasatBilal Hasan | +3.5 | — | — | 0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 8:00p | Julia PolastriatJingnan Xiong | +3.5 | — | — | 0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 8:00p | Hector SantiagoatLawrence Lui | +3.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 8:00p | Levi Rodrigues Jr.atLiu Ce | +7.5 | — | — | — | — | 64% | -179 | +179 |
| Fri 8:00p | Andre LimaatNamsrai Batbayar | +3.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 8:00p | Kevin BorjasatRei Tsuruya | -3.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 8:00p | Jack JenkinsatSean Woodson | +3.5 | — | — | — | — | 64% | -174 | +174 |
| Fri 8:00p | Umar NurmagomedovatSong Yadong | +5.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 24% | +325 | -325 |
| Fri 8:00p | Denise GomesatYan Xiaonan | +3.5 | — | — | — | — | 70% | -229 | +229 |
| Mon 8:00p | Silvestre SanchezatLiam McCracken | — | — | — | 0.5 | — | 71% | -243 | +243 |
| Mon 8:00p | Hunter SmithatAdam Livingston | — | — | — | 0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Mon 8:00p | Charlie ClevelandatGabriel Lorenço | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 8:00p | Charlie ClevelandatGabriel Lourenço | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 8:00p | Axel SolaatFarés Ziam | +3.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 8:00p | Matthieu Letho DuclosatLuis Felipe Dias | +5.5 | — | — | — | — | 51% | -102 | +102 |
| Fri 8:00p | Fabia SintesatMichael Aljarouj | +3.5 | — | — | 0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 8:00p | Nursulton RuziboevatMichael Page | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 8:00p | Oumar SyatModestas Bukauskas | +5.5 | — | — | — | — | 53% | -111 | +111 |
| Fri 8:00p | Felipe LimaatMorgan Charrière | +3.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 8:00p | Pavel AndruscaatNathaniel Wood | +3.5 | — | — | — | — | 73% | -264 | +264 |
| Fri 8:00p | Klaudia SygulaatNora Cornolle | +3.5 | — | — | — | — | 53% | -111 | +111 |
| Fri 8:00p | Daniil DonchenkoatPunahele Soriano | +7.5 | — | — | — | — | 41% | +145 | -145 |
| Fri 8:00p | Mario PintoatRyan Spann | -3.5 | — | — | — | — | 37% | +170 | -170 |
| Fri 8:00p | Delphine BenouaichatSofia Montenegro | +3.5 | — | — | 0.5 | — | 44% | +129 | -129 |
| Fri 8:00p | Kurtis CampbellatTrevor Peek | +5.5 | — | — | — | — | 33% | +207 | -207 |
| Mon 8:00p | Christian NatividadatColton Loud | — | — | — | 0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Mon 8:00p | Arlind BerishaatQuentin Pasley | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 8:00p | Martin KozákatChristian Echols | — | — | — | — | — | 19% | +424 | -424 |
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The model's expected combined score. The market column beside it is the consensus book line when this version was published.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no margin built in, for the home side and the away side.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
Want the whole board, every week, in your own spreadsheet? The 4-week pilot gives you every game on this board as a file, a live link, an API and an email. It continues as the monthly licence from day 28 unless you cancel before then.