Serie A model board
Live 9 games · next 7 days · version 8 of 17 · updated Mon 26 Oct, 9:17 am ET
Next 7 days · every game, sorted by kickoff · click a column to sort
v8 · 6 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the feed
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 1:30p | LazioatSassuolo | +0.4 | +0.5 | -0.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 29% | +239 | +129 |
| Tue 3:45p | CagliariatAS Roma | -1.6 | -1.5 | -0.2 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 70% | -234 | +821 |
| Tue 3:45p | ComoatTorino | +0.9 | +0.5 | +0.4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 21% | +373 | -116 |
| Wed 1:30p | BolognaatAC Milan | -0.5 | — | — | 2.8 | — | 58% | -141 | +456 |
| Wed 1:30p | UdineseatParma | -0.1 | — | — | 2.4 | — | 32% | +213 | +158 |
| Wed 3:45p | JuventusatGenoa | +1.2 | — | — | 2.5 | — | 18% | +453 | -132 |
| Wed 3:45p | NapoliatMonza | 3 more games with every column in the feed · choose your leagues | |||||||
| Thu 1:30p | LecceatFrosinone | ····· | |||||||
| Thu 3:45p | Atalanta BCatFiorentina | ····· | |||||||
Spread and total are our numbers. Market is the bookmakers' average number when this version went out. Gap is ours minus theirs. Fair price is the odds that would be fair at our win chance, with no bookmaker margin.First-half lines, uncertainty and every version are in the files.
Versions by day
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
v8Tue 27 Oct · Mon 26 Oct, 9:17 am ETMatch-day refresh · 3 games
v7Tue 27 Oct · Sun 25 Oct, 7:32 pm ETRefresh · 3 games
v6Tue 27 Oct · Fri 23 Oct, 10:01 pm ETRefresh · 3 games
v5Tue 27 Oct · Thu 22 Oct, 10:10 pm ETRefresh · 3 games
v5Wed 28 Oct · Thu 22 Oct, 10:10 pm ETRefresh · 4 games
v4Tue 27 Oct · Tue 20 Oct, 9:50 pm ETRefresh · 3 games
v4Wed 28 Oct · Tue 20 Oct, 9:50 pm ETRefresh · 4 games
v4Thu 29 Oct · Thu 22 Oct, 10:10 pm ETRefresh · 2 games
v3Tue 27 Oct · Tue 20 Oct, 4:13 am ETRefresh · 3 games
v3Wed 28 Oct · Tue 20 Oct, 4:13 am ETRefresh · 4 games
v3Thu 29 Oct · Tue 20 Oct, 9:50 pm ETRefresh · 2 games
v2Tue 27 Oct · Mon 19 Oct, 9:46 pm ETMarket refresh · 3 games
v2Wed 28 Oct · Mon 19 Oct, 9:46 pm ETRefresh · 4 games
v2Thu 29 Oct · Tue 20 Oct, 4:13 am ETRefresh · 2 games
v1Tue 27 Oct · Mon 19 Oct, 4:24 am ETOpening board · 3 games
v1Wed 28 Oct · Mon 19 Oct, 4:24 am ETOpening board · 4 games
v1Thu 29 Oct · Mon 19 Oct, 4:24 am ETOpening board · 2 games
Player props this week · 1 players · 1 markets across 1 games · our forecast next to the bookmakers' main number
v2 · 13 h ago
| Kick (ET) | Player | Market | Line | Our projection | Over chance | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3:45p | Nathan PattersonComo at Torino | Anytime scorer | 0.5 | 0 | 1% | +10259 | -10259 |
Our projection is the stat we expect him to reach. Over chance is how likely he goes over the bookmakers' number. Fair prices have no bookmaker margin. Under chance, uncertainty and every version are in the props file.Player stats come with every league you buy, at no extra cost.
Game markets this week · 6 market types · 158 main lines across 18 games · team totals, halves, quarters and more, priced by our model
v25 · 10 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the feed
| Kick (ET) | Game | Market | Side | Line | Our chance | Fair price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 6:30p | Grêmio at Coritiba | Spread | Grêmio | 0.2 | 53% | -111 |
| Mon 6:30p | Grêmio at Coritiba | Both teams to score | No | — | 47% | +113 |
| Mon 6:30p | Grêmio at Coritiba | Moneyline | Grêmio | — | 29% | +244 |
| Mon 6:30p | Grêmio at Coritiba | Moneyline | Draw | — | 27% | +265 |
| Mon 6:30p | Grêmio at Coritiba | 3-way moneyline | Grêmio | — | 29% | +244 |
| Mon 6:30p | Grêmio at Coritiba | 3-way moneyline | Draw | — | 27% | +265 |
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Spread | Lazio | 152 more main lines and every alternate in the feed · choose your leagues | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Spread | Lazio | ····· | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Spread | Sassuolo | ····· | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Spread | Sassuolo | ····· | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Spread | Sassuolo | ····· | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Total | Under | ····· | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Both teams to score | No | ····· | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Draw no bet | Sassuolo | ····· | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | Moneyline | Sassuolo | ····· | ||
| Tue 1:30p | Lazio at Sassuolo | 3-way moneyline | Sassuolo | ····· | ||
| Tue 3:45p | Cagliari at Roma | Spread | Cagliari | ····· | ||
| Tue 3:45p | Cagliari at Roma | Spread | Cagliari | ····· | ||
| Tue 3:45p | Cagliari at Roma | Spread | Cagliari | ····· | ||
| Tue 3:45p | Cagliari at Roma | Spread | Cagliari | ····· | ||
| Tue 3:45p | Cagliari at Roma | Spread | Cagliari | ····· | ||
| Tue 3:45p | Cagliari at Roma | Spread | Cagliari | ····· | ||
| Tue 3:45p | Cagliari at Roma | Spread | Cagliari | ····· | ||
| Tue 3:45p | Cagliari at Roma | Total | Over | ····· | ||
| Tue 3:45p | Cagliari at Roma | Both teams to score | Yes | ····· | ||
| Tue 3:45p | Cagliari at Roma | Draw no bet | Cagliari | ····· | ||
128 more main lines and every alternate line are in the markets file with the feed. Our chance is how likely this side wins at this number. Fair price has no bookmaker margin. Alternate lines, the projection behind each market and every version are in the markets file.Other game bets come with every league you buy, at no extra cost.
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 7:30a | FiorentinaatInter Milan | -1.4 | -1.5 | +0.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 70% | -237 | +709 |
| Sun 10:00a | FrosinoneatAtalanta BC | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 52% | -107 | +300 |
| Sun 10:00a | VeneziaatGenoa | -0.5 | -0.5 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 44% | +126 | +269 |
| Sun 1:00p | JuventusatLecce | +1.1 | +1.0 | +0.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 14% | +598 | -170 |
| Sun 3:45p | AC MilanatUdinese | +0.3 | +0.5 | -0.2 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 21% | +378 | -113 |
5 games · each game as we last published it before its kick-off.
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The combined score we expect. The Market column beside it is the bookmakers' average number when this version went out.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no bookmaker margin (the cut a bookmaker keeps), for both sides.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
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