NRL model board
Live 4 games · next 7 days · version 4 of 10 · updated Fri 11 Sep, 1:57 am ET
Next 7 days · every game, sorted by kickoff · click a column to sort
v4 · 30 min ago
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 5:50a | Newcastle KnightsatSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | -11 | -7.5 | -3.5 | 44 | 49.5 | 71% | -250 | +250 |
| Sat 2:05a | DolphinsatNew Zealand Warriors | +6.5 | -4.5 | +10.8 | 44 | 47 | 37% | +167 | -167 |
| Sat 5:50a | North Queensland CowboysatCronulla Sutherland Sharks | +9 | -7.5 | +16.5 | 47.5 | 47.5 | 32% | +210 | -210 |
| Sun 2:05a | Sydney RoostersatPenrith Panthers | -5 | -9.5 | +4.3 | 44 | 42.5 | 61% | -153 | +153 |
Spread and total are the model's lines; Market is the consensus book line when this version was published; Gap = ours minus market. Fair price = the odds that would be a fair bet at our win chance, no margin.First-half lines, uncertainty and every version are in the files.
Versions by day
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
v4Fri 11 Sep · Fri 11 Sep, 1:57 am ETMarket refresh · 1 games
v4Sat 12 Sep · Fri 11 Sep, 1:57 am ETMarket refresh · 2 games
v3Fri 11 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 4:57 am ETMarket refresh · 1 games
v3Sat 12 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 8:57 pm ETRefresh · 2 games
v2Fri 11 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 1:58 am ETMarket refresh · 1 games
v2Sat 12 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 8:57 pm ETRefresh · 2 games
v2Sun 13 Sep · Thu 10 Sep, 8:57 pm ETMarket refresh · 1 games
v1Fri 11 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 1:56 am ETOpening board · 1 games
v1Sat 12 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 1:56 am ETOpening board · 2 games
v1Sun 13 Sep · Wed 9 Sep, 1:56 am ETOpening board · 1 games
Player props this week · 167 players · 666 markets across 4 games · our projection at the main line
v2 · 5 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Player | Market | Line | Our projection | Over chance | Fair over | Fair under | Market over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 5:50a | Alex JohnstonKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | 0.5 | 1.1 | 65% | -190 | +190 | -175 |
| Fri 5:50a | Greg MarzhewKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | 0.5 | 0.8 | 57% | -131 | +131 | -105 |
| Fri 5:50a | Fletcher HuntKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | 0.5 | 0.8 | 54% | -115 | +115 | +210 |
| Fri 5:50a | Dominic YoungKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | 0.5 | 0.7 | 51% | -103 | +103 | +102 |
| Fri 5:50a | Latrell MitchellKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | 0.5 | 0.6 | 46% | +116 | -116 | +110 |
| Fri 5:50a | Campbell GrahamKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | 0.5 | 0.6 | 46% | +118 | -118 | -111 |
| Fri 5:50a | Tallis DuncanKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | 660 more player markets in the pilot · open the full board | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Fletcher SharpeKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | David FifitaKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Alex JohnstonKnights at Rabbitohs | Tries | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Kalyn PongaKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Latrell SiegwaltKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Cody WalkerKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Bradman BestKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Jye GrayKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Matthew DuftyKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Dane GagaiKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Jack WightonKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Kyle McCarthyKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Francis ManuleleuaKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Greg MarzhewKnights at Rabbitohs | Tries | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Cameron MurrayKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Jermaine McEwenKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Fletcher HuntKnights at Rabbitohs | Tries | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Dominic YoungKnights at Rabbitohs | Tries | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Jayden SullivanKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Brandon SmithKnights at Rabbitohs | Anytime try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Alex JohnstonKnights at Rabbitohs | First try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Alex JohnstonKnights at Rabbitohs | Last try | ····· | |||||
| Fri 5:50a | Latrell MitchellKnights at Rabbitohs | Tries | ····· | |||||
636 more player markets are in the props file with the pilot. Projection = our model's expected value for the stat; Over chance = our probability the player clears the line; fair prices carry no margin. Under chance, market under price, uncertainty and every version are in the props file.Player props come with every board licence at no extra cost.
Game markets this week · 5 market types · 22 main lines across 4 games · team totals, halves, quarters and more, priced by our model
v3 · 7 min agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Game | Market | Side | Line | Our chance | Fair price | Market price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 5:50a | Knights at Rabbitohs | Spread | South Sydney Rabbitohs | -8.5 | 50% | -101 | -105 |
| Fri 5:50a | Knights at Rabbitohs | Spread | South Sydney Rabbitohs | -7.5 | 52% | -110 | -115 |
| Fri 5:50a | Knights at Rabbitohs | Total | Under | 48.5 | 54% | -117 | -111 |
| Fri 5:50a | Knights at Rabbitohs | Total | Under | 49.5 | 55% | -123 | -111 |
| Fri 5:50a | Knights at Rabbitohs | Total (1st half) | Under | 23.5 | 51% | -104 | -111 |
| Fri 5:50a | Knights at Rabbitohs | Moneyline | South Sydney Rabbitohs | — | 67% | -207 | -233 |
| Sat 2:05a | Dolphins at Warriors | Spread | Dolphins | 16 more main lines and every alternate in the pilot · open the full board | |||
| Sat 2:05a | Dolphins at Warriors | Spread | Dolphins | ····· | |||
| Sat 2:05a | Dolphins at Warriors | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 2:05a | Dolphins at Warriors | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 2:05a | Dolphins at Warriors | Total (1st half) | Under | ····· | |||
| Sat 2:05a | Dolphins at Warriors | Moneyline | Dolphins | ····· | |||
| Sat 2:05a | Dolphins at Warriors | Moneyline (1st half) | Dolphins | ····· | |||
| Sat 5:50a | Cowboys at Sharks | Spread | North Queensland Cowboys | ····· | |||
| Sat 5:50a | Cowboys at Sharks | Spread | North Queensland Cowboys | ····· | |||
| Sat 5:50a | Cowboys at Sharks | Total (1st half) | Over | ····· | |||
| Sat 5:50a | Cowboys at Sharks | Moneyline | North Queensland Cowboys | ····· | |||
| Sat 5:50a | Cowboys at Sharks | Moneyline (1st half) | North Queensland Cowboys | ····· | |||
| Sun 2:05a | Roosters at Panthers | Spread | Sydney Roosters | ····· | |||
| Sun 2:05a | Roosters at Panthers | Spread | Sydney Roosters | ····· | |||
| Sun 2:05a | Roosters at Panthers | Moneyline | Sydney Roosters | ····· | |||
| Sun 2:05a | Roosters at Panthers | Moneyline (1st half) | Sydney Roosters | ····· | |||
Our chance = the model's probability this side wins at this line; fair price carries no margin; market price is the consensus across books at publish. Alternate lines, the projection behind each market and every version are in the markets file.Game markets come with every board licence at no extra cost.
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 4:00a | St George Illawarra DragonsatManly Warringah Sea Eagles | -1.5 | — | — | 42.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 6:00a | Canterbury BulldogsatPenrith Panthers | -10 | — | — | 52 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 1:00a | South Sydney RabbitohsatGold Coast Titans | -1.5 | — | — | 45 | — | 43% | +130 | -130 |
| Sat 3:30a | DolphinsatSydney Roosters | -2 | — | — | 51.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 5:35a | Wests TigersatNorth Queensland Cowboys | -19.5 | — | — | 45 | — | — | — | — |
| Sun 12:00a | Newcastle KnightsatNew Zealand Warriors | -11 | — | — | 50 | — | — | — | — |
| Sun 2:05a | Cronulla Sutherland SharksatParramatta Eels | -1.5 | — | — | 49.5 | — | 43% | +133 | -133 |
| Thu 5:50a | Brisbane BroncosatCanterbury Bulldogs | -7.5 | — | — | 40.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 4:00a | DolphinsatGold Coast Titans | +7.5 | — | — | 49 | — | 31% | +226 | -226 |
| Fri 6:00a | Sydney RoostersatSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | -4.5 | — | — | 49.5 | — | 48% | +107 | -107 |
| Sat 1:00a | Manly Warringah Sea EaglesatNew Zealand Warriors | -6 | — | — | 42 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 3:30a | Canberra RaidersatNorth Queensland Cowboys | -4 | — | — | 46.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 5:35a | Melbourne StormatCronulla Sutherland Sharks | -13 | — | — | 49.5 | — | 67% | -202 | +202 |
| Sun 12:00a | Parramatta EelsatSt George Illawarra Dragons | +5 | — | — | 49.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sun 2:05a | Wests TigersatPenrith Panthers | -26.5 | — | — | 49 | — | 90% | -914 | +914 |
| Tue 10:00p | North Queensland CowboysatCronulla Sutherland Sharks | +9 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 10:05p | Newcastle KnightsatSouth Sydney Rabbitohs | — | — | — | 44 | — | — | — | — |
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The model's expected combined score. The market column beside it is the consensus book line when this version was published.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no margin built in, for the home side and the away side.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
Want the whole board, every week, in your own spreadsheet? The 4-week pilot gives you every game on this board as a file, a live link, an API and an email. It continues as the monthly licence from day 28 unless you cancel before then.
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