NFL model board
Live 15 games · week 5 · version 6 of 6 · updated Tue 6 Oct, 9:06 am ET
This week · every game, sorted by kickoff · click a column to sort
v6 · 19 min agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15p | Tampa Bay BuccaneersatDallas Cowboys | -10.5 | -8.5 | -1.8 | 51.5 | 47.5 | 79% | -381 | +381 |
| Sun 9:30a | Philadelphia EaglesatJacksonville Jaguars | -7.5 | 0 | -7.4 | 49.5 | 42.5 | 72% | -256 | +256 |
| Sun 1:00p | Chicago BearsatGreen Bay Packers | +2 | +3 | -1.2 | 44.5 | 44.5 | 42% | +139 | -139 |
| Sun 1:00p | Cincinnati BengalsatMiami Dolphins | +6 | +7 | -1.0 | 46.5 | 42.5 | 25% | +302 | -302 |
| Sun 1:00p | Las Vegas RaidersatNew England Patriots | -4 | 0 | -3.9 | 44.5 | 45 | 63% | -168 | +168 |
| Sun 1:00p | Minnesota VikingsatNew Orleans Saints | +0.5 | 0 | +0.6 | 44.5 | 42 | 47% | +112 | -112 |
| Sun 1:00p | Cleveland BrownsatNew York Jets | 9 more games with every column in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
| Sun 1:00p | Indianapolis ColtsatPittsburgh Steelers | ····· | |||||||
| Sun 1:00p | Houston TexansatTennessee Titans | ····· | |||||||
| Sun 1:00p | New York GiantsatWashington Commanders | ····· | |||||||
| Sun 4:05p | Denver BroncosatLos Angeles Chargers | ····· | |||||||
| Sun 4:25p | Detroit LionsatArizona Cardinals | ····· | |||||||
| Sun 4:25p | San Francisco 49ersatSeattle Seahawks | ····· | |||||||
| Sun 8:20p | Baltimore RavensatAtlanta Falcons | ····· | |||||||
| Mon 8:15p | Buffalo BillsatLos Angeles Rams | ····· | |||||||
Spread and total are the model's lines; Market is the consensus book line when this version was published; Gap = ours minus market. Fair price = the odds that would be a fair bet at our win chance, no margin.First-half lines, uncertainty and every version are in the files.
Versions this week
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
v6Tue 6 Oct, 9:06 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 4 calibrated / 11 model · 15 games
v5Tue 6 Oct, 8:35 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 4 calibrated / 11 model · 15 games
v4Tue 6 Oct, 8:05 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 4 calibrated / 11 model · 15 games
v3Tue 6 Oct, 7:35 am ETRefresh | served 0 blended / 4 calibrated / 11 model · 15 games
v2Tue 6 Oct, 7:05 am ETMarket refresh | served 0 blended / 4 calibrated / 11 model · 15 games
v1Tue 6 Oct, 6:35 am ETOpening board | served 0 blended / 4 calibrated / 11 model · 15 games
Player props this week · 149 players · 258 markets across 13 games · our projection at the main line
v1 · 3 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Player | Market | Line | Our projection | Over chance | Fair over | Fair under | Market over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15p | Javonte WilliamsBuccaneers at Cowboys | Anytime TD | 0.5 | 0.6 | 65% | -184 | +184 | -233 |
| Thu 8:15p | Jalon DanielsBuccaneers at Cowboys | Passing TDs | 0.5 | 0.8 | 57% | -130 | +130 | -236 |
| Thu 8:15p | Dak PrescottBuccaneers at Cowboys | Pass interceptions | 0.5 | 0.8 | 56% | -126 | +126 | +101 |
| Thu 8:15p | CeeDee LambBuccaneers at Cowboys | Anytime TD | 0.5 | 0.5 | 55% | -120 | +120 | -5 |
| Thu 8:15p | Dak PrescottBuccaneers at Cowboys | Passing TDs | 1.5 | 1.8 | 54% | -118 | +118 | -223 |
| Thu 8:15p | CeeDee LambBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receptions | 5.5 | 5.8 | 52% | -109 | +109 | -167 |
| Thu 8:15p | Javonte WilliamsBuccaneers at Cowboys | Rushing yards | 252 more player markets in the pilot · open the full board | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Emeka EgbukaBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receiving yards | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Bucky IrvingBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receptions | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Javonte WilliamsBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receptions | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Jalon DanielsBuccaneers at Cowboys | Passing yards | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Kenny GainwellBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receptions | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Dak PrescottBuccaneers at Cowboys | Passing yards | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Bucky IrvingBuccaneers at Cowboys | Rush reception yds | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Bucky IrvingBuccaneers at Cowboys | Rushing yards | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Ted Hurst IIIBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receptions | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Cade OttonBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receptions | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Dak PrescottBuccaneers at Cowboys | Completions | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Ryan FlournoyBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receiving yards | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | CeeDee LambBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receiving yards | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Javonte WilliamsBuccaneers at Cowboys | Rush attempts | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Ryan FlournoyBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receptions | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Cade OttonBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receiving yards | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Jalon DanielsBuccaneers at Cowboys | Rushing yards | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Kenny GainwellBuccaneers at Cowboys | Rush reception yds | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | George PickensBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receptions | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | George PickensBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receiving yards | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Tez JohnsonBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receiving yards | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Jalon DanielsBuccaneers at Cowboys | Completions | ····· | |||||
| Thu 8:15p | Emeka EgbukaBuccaneers at Cowboys | Receptions | ····· | |||||
228 more player markets are in the props file with the pilot. Projection = our model's expected value for the stat; Over chance = our probability the player clears the line; fair prices carry no margin. Under chance, market under price, uncertainty and every version are in the props file.Player props come with every board licence at no extra cost.
Game markets this week · 4 market types · 43 main lines across 15 games · team totals, halves, quarters and more, priced by our model
v1 · 2 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Game | Market | Side | Line | Our chance | Fair price | Market price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15p | Buccaneers at Cowboys | Team total | Dallas Cowboys over | 28.5 | 49% | +105 | -108 |
| Thu 8:15p | Buccaneers at Cowboys | Team total | Tampa Bay Buccaneers over | 18.5 | 48% | +110 | -115 |
| Thu 8:15p | Buccaneers at Cowboys | Spread | Dallas Cowboys | -9.5 | 51% | -104 | -105 |
| Thu 8:15p | Buccaneers at Cowboys | Total | Over | 47.5 | 50% | -100 | -107 |
| Sun 9:30a | Eagles at Jaguars | Team total | Jacksonville Jaguars over | 24.5 | 55% | -122 | -108 |
| Sun 9:30a | Eagles at Jaguars | Team total | Philadelphia Eagles over | 17.5 | 53% | -114 | -114 |
| Sun 9:30a | Eagles at Jaguars | Total | Over | 37 more main lines and every alternate in the pilot · open the full board | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Bengals at Dolphins | Team total | Miami Dolphins over | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Bengals at Dolphins | Spread | Miami Dolphins | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Bengals at Dolphins | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Bengals at Dolphins | Moneyline | Miami Dolphins | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Raiders at Patriots | Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Vikings at Saints | Team total | Minnesota Vikings over | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Vikings at Saints | Team total | New Orleans Saints over | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Vikings at Saints | Spread | New Orleans Saints | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Vikings at Saints | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Browns at Jets | Team total | New York Jets over | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Browns at Jets | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Browns at Jets | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Colts at Steelers | Team total | Indianapolis Colts under | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Colts at Steelers | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Colts at Steelers | Total | Under | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Texans at Titans | Team total | Houston Texans over | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Texans at Titans | Team total | Tennessee Titans over | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Texans at Titans | Spread | Tennessee Titans | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Texans at Titans | Spread | Tennessee Titans | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Texans at Titans | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Texans at Titans | Moneyline | Tennessee Titans | ····· | |||
| Sun 1:00p | Giants at Commanders | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Sun 4:05p | Broncos at Chargers | Total | Over | ····· | |||
13 more main lines and every alternate line are in the markets file with the pilot. Our chance = the model's probability this side wins at this line; fair price carries no margin; market price is the consensus across books at publish. Alternate lines, the projection behind each market and every version are in the markets file.Game markets come with every board licence at no extra cost.
Fantasy projections this week · 882 players · standard, half-PPR, PPR, DraftKings and FanDuel points plus the projected stat line
3 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Player | Pos | Points | Half-PPR | PPR | Pass yds | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr GibbsDET | RB | 18.4 | 20.2 | 21.9 | 3.4 | 89.0 | 3.5 | 30.8 | 1.1 |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | QB | 21.5 | 21.6 | 21.6 | 235.4 | 38.2 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | WR | 14.9 | 18.1 | 21.2 | 28.2 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 91.5 | 0.8 |
| Josh AllenBUF | QB | 20.2 | 20.4 | 20.5 | 230.0 | 30.6 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Jayden DanielsWAS | QB | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.2 | 233.9 | 29.6 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| Lamar JacksonBAL | QB | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.2 | 231.5 | 29.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.9 |
| Jacoby BrissettARI | QB | 876 more players in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
| Drake MayeNE | QB | ····· | |||||||
| Dak PrescottDAL | QB | ····· | |||||||
| Jonathan TaylorIND | RB | ····· | |||||||
| Brock PurdySF | QB | ····· | |||||||
| Amon-Ra St. BrownDET | WR | ····· | |||||||
| Ashton JeantyLV | RB | ····· | |||||||
| Trey McBrideARI | TE | ····· | |||||||
| CeeDee LambDAL | WR | ····· | |||||||
| Derrick HenryBAL | RB | ····· | |||||||
| Jared GoffDET | QB | ····· | |||||||
| Bijan RobinsonATL | RB | ····· | |||||||
| Case KeenumCHI | QB | ····· | |||||||
| Trevor LawrenceJAX | QB | ····· | |||||||
| James CookBUF | RB | ····· | |||||||
| Kyren WilliamsLA | RB | ····· | |||||||
| Puka NacuaLA | WR | ····· | |||||||
| Chris OlaveNO | WR | ····· | |||||||
| Justin HerbertLAC | QB | ····· | |||||||
| Matthew StaffordLA | QB | ····· | |||||||
| Baker MayfieldTB | QB | ····· | |||||||
| D'Andre SwiftCHI | RB | ····· | |||||||
| Deshaun WatsonCLE | QB | ····· | |||||||
| Javonte WilliamsDAL | RB | ····· | |||||||
852 more players are in the fantasy file with the pilot. Points = our model's expected fantasy score for the coming week; the stat line behind it is in the file. Fantasy files are refreshed by each model run and stamped with updated_utc.Fantasy projections come with the board licence at no extra cost.
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8:15p | Pittsburgh SteelersatCleveland Browns | +1.5 | -2.5 | +4.1 | 43.5 | 52.5 | 40% | +148 | -148 |
| Sun 9:32a | Indianapolis ColtsatWashington Commanders | +2.5 | +16.5 | -14.2 | 46 | 43.5 | 40% | +149 | -149 |
| Sun 1:00p | New York JetsatChicago Bears | -4 | -11.5 | +7.5 | 43 | 36.5 | 62% | -165 | +165 |
| Sun 1:00p | Los Angeles RamsatPhiladelphia Eagles | +0.5 | +3.5 | -2.9 | 47 | 45 | 43% | +133 | -133 |
| Sun 1:00p | Jacksonville JaguarsatCincinnati Bengals | -3 | +4.5 | -7.5 | 51.5 | 39.5 | 58% | -139 | +139 |
| Sun 1:00p | New England PatriotsatBuffalo Bills | -7 | +2.5 | -9.6 | 48.5 | 56 | 72% | -256 | +256 |
| Sun 1:00p | Arizona CardinalsatNew York Giants | -1.5 | -5.5 | +3.9 | 45 | 57.5 | 53% | -112 | +112 |
| Sun 1:00p | Green Bay PackersatTampa Bay Buccaneers | +2.5 | +2.5 | -0.1 | 43.5 | 32.5 | 38% | +160 | -160 |
| Sun 1:00p | Dallas CowboysatHouston Texans | -3 | +3 | -5.8 | 47 | 62.5 | 57% | -131 | +131 |
| Sun 1:00p | Tennessee TitansatBaltimore Ravens | -11.5 | -7.5 | -4.1 | 47 | 39 | 83% | -485 | +485 |
| Sun 4:05p | Miami DolphinsatMinnesota Vikings | -11 | -7.5 | -3.5 | 44.5 | 29 | 80% | -395 | +395 |
| Sun 4:25p | Los Angeles ChargersatSeattle Seahawks | -7.5 | -6.5 | -1.2 | 46.5 | 54 | 77% | -344 | +344 |
| Sun 4:25p | Denver BroncosatSan Francisco 49ers | -4 | -9.5 | +5.5 | 46.5 | 40.5 | 51% | -105 | +105 |
| Sun 4:25p | Kansas City ChiefsatLas Vegas Raiders | +3 | +2.5 | +0.7 | 49.5 | 57.5 | 36% | +182 | -182 |
| Sun 8:20p | Detroit LionsatCarolina Panthers | +2 | -5.5 | +7.4 | 47.5 | 58.5 | 74% | -292 | +292 |
| Mon 8:17p | Atlanta FalconsatNew Orleans Saints | -3 | +21.5 | -24.6 | 44.5 | 68.5 | 58% | -136 | +136 |
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The model's expected combined score. The market column beside it is the consensus book line when this version was published.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no margin built in, for the home side and the away side.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
Want the whole board, every week, in your own spreadsheet? The 4-week pilot gives you every game on this board as a file, a live link, an API and an email. It continues as the monthly licence from day 28 unless you cancel before then.
Bet Better Pty Ltd · ABN 66 670 726 691 · Melbourne · Licence · Docs · Help · betbetter.worldModel output is information, not advice. 18+ / 21+ where you are. Gamble responsibly.