NBA model board
Live 9 games · Mon 26 Oct · version 7 of 7 · updated Mon 26 Oct, 2:38 pm ET
This week · every game, sorted by kickoff · click a column to sort
v7 · 52 min agofirst 6 open · rest in the feed
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7:00p | Washington WizardsatCharlotte Hornets | -10 | -2.5 | -7.6 | 225 | 228.5 | 71% | -240 | +240 |
| Mon 7:00p | Minnesota TimberwolvesatCleveland Cavaliers | -1.5 | -5.5 | +4.1 | 225 | 232.5 | 48% | +107 | -107 |
| Mon 7:30p | Chicago BullsatBoston Celtics | -11.5 | -14.5 | +2.8 | 219 | 233.5 | 73% | -266 | +266 |
| Mon 7:30p | Dallas MavericksatMiami Heat | -13.5 | -8 | -5.3 | 240.5 | 241.5 | 78% | -348 | +348 |
| Mon 8:00p | Indiana PacersatMilwaukee Bucks | -3.5 | +4.5 | -7.9 | 226.5 | 239.5 | 64% | -175 | +175 |
| Mon 8:00p | Phoenix SunsatOklahoma City Thunder | -13 | -10.5 | -2.6 | 218.5 | 220.5 | 74% | -281 | +281 |
| Mon 8:30p | Atlanta HawksatHouston Rockets | 3 more games with every column in the feed · choose your leagues | |||||||
| Mon 9:00p | Memphis GrizzliesatUtah Jazz | ····· | |||||||
| Mon 10:00p | Golden State WarriorsatDenver Nuggets | ····· | |||||||
Spread and total are our numbers. Market is the bookmakers' average number when this version went out. Gap is ours minus theirs. Fair price is the odds that would be fair at our win chance, with no bookmaker margin.First-half lines, uncertainty and every version are in the files.
Versions this week
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
v7Mon 26 Oct, 2:38 pm ETMarket refresh · 9 games
v6Mon 26 Oct, 11:41 am ETMarket refresh · 9 games
v5Mon 26 Oct, 8:20 am ETRefresh · 9 games
v4Mon 26 Oct, 6:07 am ETMarket refresh · 9 games
v3Mon 26 Oct, 3:08 am ETMarket refresh · 9 games
v2Sun 25 Oct, 11:53 pm ETRefresh · 9 games
v1Sun 25 Oct, 9:38 pm ETOpening board · 5 games
Player props this week · 109 players · 1025 markets across 9 games · our forecast next to the bookmakers' main number
v7 · 51 min agofirst 6 open · rest in the feed
| Kick (ET) | Player | Market | Line | Our projection | Over chance | Fair over | Fair under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 7:00p | Trae YoungWizards at Hornets | Points | 16.5 | 20.3 | 81% | -419 | +419 |
| Mon 7:00p | Evan MobleyTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Assists | 2.5 | 4.1 | 79% | -380 | +380 |
| Mon 7:00p | Justin ChampagnieWizards at Hornets | Rebounds | 4.5 | 6.2 | 78% | -359 | +359 |
| Mon 7:00p | Jarrett AllenTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Rebounds | 6.5 | 7.9 | 73% | -272 | +272 |
| Mon 7:00p | Donovan MitchellTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Points | 21.5 | 24.1 | 72% | -261 | +261 |
| Mon 7:00p | Moussa DiabateWizards at Hornets | Assists | 1.5 | 2 | 72% | -261 | +261 |
| Mon 7:00p | Jarrett AllenTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Points | 1019 more player markets in the feed · choose your leagues | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Anthony DavisWizards at Hornets | Rebounds | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Evan MobleyTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Rebounds | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Anthony DavisWizards at Hornets | Reb + ast | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Jonathan KumingaTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Assists | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Ayo DosunmuTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Rebounds | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Alex SarrWizards at Hornets | Assists | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Jaden McDanielsTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Points | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Rudy GobertTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Points | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Brandon MillerWizards at Hornets | Assists | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Jonathan KumingaTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Steals | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Alex SarrWizards at Hornets | Threes | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Evan MobleyTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Points | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | James HardenTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Assists | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Ayo DosunmuTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Threes | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Justin ChampagnieWizards at Hornets | Threes | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Dennis SchroderWizards at Hornets | Rebounds | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Trae YoungWizards at Hornets | Rebounds | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Alex SarrWizards at Hornets | Rebounds | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Peyton WatsonTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Steals | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | LaMelo BallTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Points | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Grayson AllenWizards at Hornets | Steals | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | Peyton WatsonTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Points | ····· | ||||
| Mon 7:00p | LaMelo BallTimberwolves at Cavaliers | Threes | ····· | ||||
995 more player markets are in the props file with the feed. Our projection is the stat we expect him to reach. Over chance is how likely he goes over the bookmakers' number. Fair prices have no bookmaker margin. Under chance, uncertainty and every version are in the props file.Player stats come with every league you buy, at no extra cost.
Fantasy projections this round · 7 players · AFL Fantasy points
13 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the feed
| Player | Pos | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Devin BookerPhoenix Suns | 25.6 | |
| Devin BookerPhoenix Suns | 25.6 | |
| Jalen GreenPhoenix Suns | 18.6 | |
| Jalen GreenPhoenix Suns | 18.6 | |
| Anthony DavisWashington Wizards | 12.4 | |
| Anthony DavisWashington Wizards | 11.9 | |
| Nikola JokicDenver Nuggets | 8 more players in the feed · choose your leagues | |
| Nikola JokicDenver Nuggets | ····· | |
| Isaiah HartensteinOklahoma City Thunder | ····· | |
| Isaiah HartensteinOklahoma City Thunder | ····· | |
| Aaron WigginsAtlanta Hawks | ····· | |
| Aaron WigginsAtlanta Hawks | ····· | |
| Dennis SchroderCharlotte Hornets | ····· | |
| Dennis SchroderCharlotte Hornets | ····· |
Points = our model's expected fantasy score for the coming round; the stat line behind it is in the file. Fantasy files are refreshed by each model run and stamped with updated_utc.Fantasy projections come with the board licence at no extra cost.
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 5:00p | Los Angeles LakersatUtah Jazz | +6 | +6.5 | -0.3 | 227.5 | 237.5 | 39% | +155 | -155 |
| Sun 6:00p | Indiana PacersatBrooklyn Nets | +2 | +6.5 | -4.6 | 223 | 231.5 | 48% | +107 | -107 |
| Sun 7:00p | Orlando MagicatNew York Knicks | -4 | -7.5 | +3.3 | 217 | 224.5 | 52% | -110 | +110 |
| Sun 7:00p | Toronto RaptorsatMinnesota Timberwolves | -5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | 221 | 230.5 | 56% | -129 | +129 |
| Sun 7:00p | Los Angeles ClippersatOklahoma City Thunder | -19.5 | -16.5 | -2.8 | 218.5 | 224.5 | 85% | -565 | +565 |
| Sun 7:30p | Detroit PistonsatPhiladelphia 76ers | +4 | +1.5 | +2.6 | 223.5 | 228.5 | 35% | +185 | -185 |
| Sun 9:00p | Memphis GrizzliesatSacramento Kings | +6 | +3.5 | +2.6 | 227 | 235.5 | 38% | +160 | -160 |
7 games · each game as we last published it before its kick-off.
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The combined score we expect. The Market column beside it is the bookmakers' average number when this version went out.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no bookmaker margin (the cut a bookmaker keeps), for both sides.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
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