MLB model board
Live 11 games · Fri 11 Sep · version 4 of 4 · updated Thu 10 Sep, 11:28 pm ET
This week · every game, sorted by kickoff · click a column to sort
v4 · 3 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6:41p | Colorado RockiesatDetroit Tigers | -2.9 | -1.5 | -1.4 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 83% | -477 | +477 |
| Fri 6:46p | Los Angeles AngelsatWashington Nationals | +0.3 | -1.5 | +1.8 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 49% | +103 | -103 |
| Fri 7:06p | New York MetsatNew York Yankees | +0.1 | -1.5 | +1.6 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 50% | -101 | +101 |
| Fri 7:08p | Baltimore OriolesatToronto Blue Jays | -2.1 | 0.0 | -2.1 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 73% | -274 | +274 |
| Fri 7:11p | Kansas City RoyalsatBoston Red Sox | -0.4 | -1.5 | +1.1 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 57% | -133 | +133 |
| Fri 7:11p | Houston AstrosatTampa Bay Rays | +0.6 | -1.5 | +2.1 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 51% | -105 | +105 |
| Fri 7:16p | Philadelphia PhilliesatAtlanta Braves | 5 more games with every column in the pilot · open the full board | |||||||
| Fri 7:46p | Cincinnati RedsatMilwaukee Brewers | ····· | |||||||
| Fri 8:11p | Cleveland GuardiansatMinnesota Twins | ····· | |||||||
| Fri 8:16p | Chicago White SoxatSt. Louis Cardinals | ····· | |||||||
| Fri 10:16p | San Diego PadresatSan Francisco Giants | ····· | |||||||
Spread and total are the model's lines; Market is the consensus book line when this version was published; Gap = ours minus market. Fair price = the odds that would be a fair bet at our win chance, no margin.First-half lines, uncertainty and every version are in the files.
Versions this week
The board is republished when the numbers move. Every version is kept with its timestamp, so a line can always be traced back to the moment it was published.
v4Thu 10 Sep, 11:28 pm ETMarket refresh · 11 games
v3Thu 10 Sep, 8:14 pm ETRefresh · 11 games
v2Thu 10 Sep, 6:14 pm ETRefresh · 10 games
v1Thu 10 Sep, 4:10 pm ETOpening board · 7 games
Player props this week · 228 players · 1899 markets across 11 games · our projection at the main line
v3 · 2 h agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Player | Market | Line | Our projection | Over chance | Fair over | Fair under | Market over |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6:46p | Dylan CrewsAngels at Nationals | Batter hits runs rbis | 0.5 | 1 | 63% | -172 | +172 | -370 |
| Fri 6:46p | Josh LoweAngels at Nationals | Batter hits runs rbis | 0.5 | 1 | 61% | -158 | +158 | -145 |
| Fri 6:46p | Jorbit VivasAngels at Nationals | Batter hits runs rbis | 0.5 | 0.9 | 60% | -153 | +153 | -172 |
| Fri 6:46p | Yohandy MoralesAngels at Nationals | Batter hits runs rbis | 0.5 | 1 | 60% | -152 | +152 | -192 |
| Fri 6:46p | Harry FordAngels at Nationals | Batter hits | 0.5 | 0.9 | 60% | -147 | +147 | -149 |
| Fri 6:46p | Zach NetoAngels at Nationals | Batter hits runs rbis | 0.5 | 0.9 | 58% | -140 | +140 | -270 |
| Fri 6:46p | Adam FrazierAngels at Nationals | Batter hits runs rbis | 1893 more player markets in the pilot · open the full board | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Oswald PerazaAngels at Nationals | Batter hits runs rbis | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Brady HouseAngels at Nationals | Batter hits runs rbis | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Jacob YoungAngels at Nationals | Batter runs scored | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Harry FordAngels at Nationals | Batter runs scored | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Wade MecklerAngels at Nationals | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Jacob YoungAngels at Nationals | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Mike TroutAngels at Nationals | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | James WoodAngels at Nationals | Batter hits runs rbis | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Josh LoweAngels at Nationals | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Yohandy MoralesAngels at Nationals | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Adam FrazierAngels at Nationals | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Jorbit VivasAngels at Nationals | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Dylan CrewsAngels at Nationals | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Harry FordAngels at Nationals | Batter singles | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Oswald PerazaAngels at Nationals | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Harry FordAngels at Nationals | Batter total bases | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Zach NetoAngels at Nationals | Batter hits | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Mike TroutAngels at Nationals | Batter runs scored | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Wade MecklerAngels at Nationals | Batter singles | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Harry FordAngels at Nationals | Batter rbis | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Jacob YoungAngels at Nationals | Batter total bases | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Vaughn GrissomAngels at Nationals | Batter hits runs rbis | ····· | |||||
| Fri 6:46p | Mike TroutAngels at Nationals | Batter singles | ····· | |||||
1869 more player markets are in the props file with the pilot. Projection = our model's expected value for the stat; Over chance = our probability the player clears the line; fair prices carry no margin. Under chance, market under price, uncertainty and every version are in the props file.Player props come with every board licence at no extra cost.
Game markets this round · 7 market types · 386 main lines across 11 games · team totals, halves, quarters and more, priced by our model
v6 · 14 min agofirst 6 open · rest in the pilot
| Kick (ET) | Game | Market | Side | Line | Our chance | Fair price | Market price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | -8.5 | 7% | +1262 | +1400 |
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | -7.5 | 7% | +1345 | +1060 |
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | -6.5 | 9% | +971 | +800 |
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | -6 | 10% | +892 | +730 |
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | -5.5 | 14% | +632 | +600 |
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | -5 | 15% | +568 | +507 |
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | 380 more main lines and every alternate in the pilot · open the full board | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Spread | Detroit Tigers | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Total | Over | ····· | |||
| Fri 6:40p | Rockies at Tigers | Total | Over | ····· | |||
356 more main lines and every alternate line are in the markets file with the pilot. Our chance = the model's probability this side wins at this line; fair price carries no margin; market price is the consensus across books at publish. Alternate lines, the projection behind each market and every version are in the markets file.Game markets come with every board licence at no extra cost.
| Kick (ET) | Game | Spread (home) | Market | Gap | Total | Market | Home win | Fair price · home | Fair price · away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 12:15p | Tampa Bay RaysatAtlanta Braves | +0.7 | -1.5 | +2.2 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 51% | -102 | +102 |
| Thu 1:06p | Houston AstrosatPhiladelphia Phillies | +3.4 | -1.5 | +4.9 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 27% | +277 | -277 |
| Thu 4:10p | Texas RangersatSeattle Mariners | -1.1 | 0.0 | -1.1 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 70% | -228 | +228 |
| Thu 7:05p | Colorado RockiesatNew York Yankees | -2.4 | -1.5 | -0.9 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 78% | -363 | +363 |
| Thu 7:41p | Pittsburgh PiratesatChicago White Sox | +2.0 | +1.5 | +0.5 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 33% | +201 | -201 |
How to read the board
Spread (home)
The model's margin, written from the home side. −6.5 means we make the home team 6.5 points better. A plus number means the home team is the underdog.
Total
The model's expected combined score. The market column beside it is the consensus book line when this version was published.
Home win and fair price
Home win is the chance the home team wins. Fair price turns that chance into odds with no margin built in, for the home side and the away side.
Gap
Our spread minus the market spread. A big gap is a disagreement worth a closer look, not a promise. Every gap is in the file with its timestamp.
Want the whole board, every week, in your own spreadsheet? The 4-week pilot gives you every game on this board as a file, a live link, an API and an email. It continues as the monthly licence from day 28 unless you cancel before then.
Bet Better Pty Ltd · ABN 66 670 726 691 · Melbourne · Licence · Docs · Help · betbetter.worldModel output is information, not advice. 18+ / 21+ where you are. Gamble responsibly.